Strange Deadfellows Oilerblog

New Address New Blog

2010-01-24T21:33:00.001-07:00

http://www.oilersrefinery.tk/

New Address New Blog

http://www.oilersrefinery.tk/

New Address New Blog

http://www.oilersrefinery.tk/

New Address New Blog

News on the New Oilers Arena

2009-11-19T00:59:00.003-07:00

So the news is... there isn't much news.

But the potential for the project for revitalization of downtown is quite large. Can't say much right now but check back on the new blog @ An Oilers Refinery for details on when more info can be found at The Gateway. Working on an article and Patrick LaForge, Bryan Anderson, among others, talk about Katz's vision for a downtown arena, and all it entails for Edmontonians in the downtown area.

When I have more to say I will most likely post it up at Bleacher Report as well.

This likely the last post here, ever.

Farewell, Deadfellows readers!

~Antony Ta

We've come a long way

2009-11-12T10:17:00.004-07:00

I'm surprised sometimes that I still get visitors to this blog even though I shut it down a long time ago. Sometimes I go back on this blog and read some of my old work and I marvel at what a long way I've come in such a short time - and what a long way I still have to go.

This blog (and its successor An Oilers Refinery) has no major aspirations of doing what Jonathan Willis does or of becoming OilersNation v2.

When I look at how my blog started as a angry little blog post whining about the running of MSM and the "right to game-day-live-blog" (however misshapen that idea might have been) and look at the way I write now... I realize that blogging is more about writing to converse.

You can be speaking to the online community, or sometimes airing thoughts. You could be simply talking to yourself.

In any situation, it no longer matters so much as if people read my blog as opposed to who reads my blog. It's just a place for friends to gather.

And that's what it should be.

(P.S. Be sure to check out Oilers.nhl.com at least once a day. I think I go there at least 5 times a day hoping for something new to pop up... sometimes I'm disappointed but there's always the refresh button and 2 seconds of hope... :-D)

Oilers Insider Hockey News and Rumors: “Star-chitecture:” Not as glittering as it seems? by: The Prof

2009-09-24T01:57:00.001-06:00

Interesting perspective from Jim Parsson's of The Oilers Insider and my fellow Featured Columnist over at The Bleacher Report; he writes about the Katz arena initiative and the proposed downtown revitalization project:

Oilers Insider Hockey News and Rumors: “Star-chitecture:” Not as glittering as it seems? by: The Prof

A Sad Farewell

2009-07-30T17:59:00.004-06:00

Saying bye to Strange Deadfellows Oilerblog is kind of like saying bye to this random but really cute husky cross that deep down inside you want to kidnap and bring home, but not really.

Did I say that out loud?

But in reality, saying bye to our Oilerblog is more like a hello than a goodbye? Well, for anyone familiar with the Transformers franchise, it's like a pretty normal looking car morphing into an ass-kicking robot from outer space, fighting good or manifesting evil in awesome fashion.

Either way, it's awesome.

So at long last, I want to introduce An Oilers Refinery, our new hockey and sports blog built on a WordPress (did I mention it's better than Blogger?) engine.

It's morphin' time!

Dictionary of Oilingo

2009-07-28T02:28:00.003-06:00

My new blog, An Oilers Refinery, has a dictionary of Oilers-relevant terms, tentatively called Oilingo. I would appreciate if you would assist me in filling this dictionary.

With the 8th overall pick, the Edmonton Oilers select...

2009-07-24T01:21:00.007-06:00

#8 - Zach Parise to the Edmonton Oilers (selected by Antony Ta)

Let's just forget the Oilers ever traded that 17th overall pick.

Cap Hit: $3,125,000

Parise does it all: he scores goals, gives assists, finishes hits and plays with intensity.

The First 10 Picks:

1. Calgary, Ovechkin
2. Vancouver, Crosby
3. Tampa Bay, Lundqvist
4. Dallas, Malkin
5. Chicago, Toews
6. New York (Islanders), Lidström
7. Philadelphia, Datsyuk
8. Edmonton, Parise
9. Nashville, T.B.A.
10. Atlanta, T.B.A.

More on this Fantasy Re-Draft:
Cycle like the Sedins: Re-drafting the League: Revealing picks 26-30!

Dwight Helminen and Energy Players

2009-07-22T01:20:00.008-06:00

Dwight Helminen signed in San Jose.

For those of you who recall, he was an Oilers draft pick from way back when and was most recently a call up for the Carolina Hurricanes, as mentioned elsewhere previously.

Which leads me to thinking:

Are there any former Oiler draft picks / property that could potentially fill in for the holes vacated by Brodziak and/or Reddox? Though this summer is a chance for Jacques/Pouliot/Brule to prove they have the tools to be energy role players - should the Oilers seek insurance? This insurance sought should benefit not only the Oilers 4th line coming out of training camp (competition) but also as incoming veterans on a young Falcons team.

Players like Alexei Mikhnov and Alexander Bumagin are certainly out of the picture, but are there any others to consider?

The first name that comes to mind is Tyler Spurgeon (aka the faceoff machine), but the Oilers just let him go this summer.

The second name that comes to mind is Jonas Almtorp, who receives a favourable description from Hockey's Future but a not so desirable rating of 4.5 B. He sounds like a great energy player since they mention his skating abilities, but a 4.5 B rating leaves one scratching their head. Since Kyle Brodziak graduated Hockey's Future with a 6.0 B, Almtorp would be considered a slight downgrade (though cheaper). But that's only if you hold Hockey's Future ratings in high regard. I personally think they are usually pretty accurate.

Thirdly, what about Mike Bishai - a free agent college signing who has apparently become a reliable offensive guy in the SM-liiga? He most recently spent 49 games in 2007-08 with a recent Oiler signing, Matt Nickerson, playing for Ilves Tampere. I think that Bishai could be the Jason Krog of the Springfield Falcons.

Lastly, what about Bishai's current teammate in Jokerit Helsinki, Jani Rita? Rita's last stint in Edmonton left something to be desired both by the club and by the player, but in hindsight, he was a player whose promise was never delivered due to many complicating factors. Like Liam Reddox, Rita was a high-scoring winger as youngster and has settled into more of a leadership role with Helsinki, and he currently sits second for Jokerit in points. Could he be a potential sparkplug? Would he be willing to come back to the Oilers for one season (assuming next season is the RFA season from hell...)?

I think the addition of Bishai and Rita, along with forwards like Chris Minard, Jordan Eberle, Toni Rajala, and Milan Kytnar, the Falcons will be soon become a very competitive AHL team, at least up front. The bonus is that Bishai is probably an upgrade on Tim Sestito, and he would be a potential call-up pending injuries or whatever.

Denis no longer a Menace

2009-07-21T12:22:00.002-06:00

Grebs is signed to a one year deal at 3.15 million.

This is good in that he makes much less than the expected 3.5 M per year price tag we were expecting, but bad in that he will be a pending UFA at the end of next season.

An Oilers Refinery

2009-07-21T12:04:00.002-06:00

At the end of August, Strange Deadfellows, The Refinery, and Addicted-To-Oil are considering a move to a new URL and blog, tentatively to be called "An Oilers Refinery."

More details to come.

Bodies: "I think I broke my Armchair" GM'ing

2009-07-19T11:45:00.010-06:00

This is Scottie Upshall. Do you think he could play an Ethan Moreau role? More on him later.

Steve Tambellini has a lot of bodies to get rid of, and a lot of holes to fill. The only problem is, not all those holes can be filled via just the trade or just the UFA route, primarily because:

a) some positions are deep on the UFA front
b) some positions are shallow on the RFA front
c) a lot of talent has already been scooped up on the UFA front

Basically, he'll have to create more holes to fill old ones, but only in the short run. Then, like Brian Burke, he will deal excess bodies to fill those secondary holes. Lastly, he will sign a bunch of reliable AHL and NHL journeyman to two-way contracts who have the capability to fill in when injuries happen. This may include signing our own RFAs or dealing some of them.

Tambellini will have to be crafty to fill his roster holes without upsetting the balance of team chemistry heading into the season. I think this means the Oilers have to identify where they can save money and where they have to spend.

The goaltending issue has already been resolved, but the following issues are still at hand:

3rd line checking center
top-6 winger
cheap, reliable defenseman (5-8)

Considering the Oilers are spending 2 million and up on Moreau and Staios, I would say the Oilers would look to replacing them first. I wouldn't look to Pisani considering he's a pending UFA and he would only have trade value around the trade deadline in Spring, and also because Pisani is one of our more consistent checking forwards.

Both Moreau and Staios have been warriors for Edmonton. They have bled for the Oilers but I think this past season has shown that their roles on the team are only regressing to the point where they may become expendable. Moreau is a penalty-taking risk every time he's on the ice and Staios, though making D partners like Strudwick look better, is not worth 2.7 million if you consider Denis Grebeshkov is worth 3.3-4 million. It just wouldn't make sense.

Other bodies of interest are Nilsson and Smid. They both have better trade value than Moreau and Staios. Firstly, because they are younger, and secondly, because of all their upside. Moreau and Staios have already hit the ceiling in their careers but Nilsson and Smid may not have.

I think Scottie Upshall, a UFA, could be signed to less than 2 million but more than the $1,250,000 he made last year. Maybe in the 1.5 or 1.6 million range. I also believe he could fill the Moreau role, while Moreau could be traded to a team looking for grit and leadership. I think Phoenix would accept a Moreau for Upshall trade straight-up.

Nilsson would go to a team full of aging veterans in need of a boost of youth, and the Oilers would receive that cheap, reliable defenseman to replace Staios on the bottom pairing (5-8), along with draft picks. Detroit loves young skilled wingers and Nilsson has a great pedigree. Perhaps a Nilsson for Lebda + picks deal would work out fine.

This leaves Staios as the odd man out. Pittsburgh may want him because they lost Scuderi this off season via UFA. What would the Oilers want in return, though? Perhaps another one of the young firebrands the Penguins seem so good at developing (in the mold of Talbot, Stone, and others). Maybe Tyler Kennedy? Tyler Kennedy would not only be a replacement for Liam Reddox, he may be an upgrade.

For me, the only way you trade Smid (as part of a package) is that you get one of the following things in return:

A top-6 forward
A bonafide 3rd line checking center

In my Armchair GM scenario, we're slowly working towards having enough salary to sign Manny Malholtra. So, it would make sense that Smid would have to be part of a package to land a top-6 winger. However, life isn't perfect, so I've considered the available top-6 forwards:

Dany Heatley - he's not coming to Edmonton
Nikolai Zherdev - acquiring this player leaves Cogliano in limbo
Travis Zajac - the Oilers would have to overpay to get him

It may make sense to trade Smid to a team like San Jose, who have an older team with an average age of 29.6 years old, for a proven faceoff guy like Marcel Goc, who was 58.2% on the draws last year.

Certainly, his QUALCOMP was -0.047 but that was already a better rating than the following players:

Daniel Briere (top-6)
Steve Begin (checking center)
Marc-Antoine Pouliot (rating of -0.060)
Kyle Brodziak (rating of -0.068)

And identical to the following players:

Boyd Gordon
Michel Ouellet
Ladislav Smid

Marcel Goc is not Manny Malholtra (QUALCOMP of 0.027 and BTN +/- of 11) but he's a pretty decent alternative, and apparently an improvement on Oilers 3rd and 4th line centers of the past season. Acquiring both would solve even more problems.

For the purposes of the following lineups I will assume Goc will sign for 2 million.

Lineup

Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
O'Sullivan-Gagner-Cogliano
Upshall-Malholtra-Pisani (pending UFA)
Kennedy-Goc-Stortini
Jacques
MacIntyre
Pouliot

Forwards: About 32 million

Souray-Visnovsky
Gilbert-Grebeshkov
Peckham-Lebda
Strudwick

D-men: About 21 million

Khabibulin-DesLauriers

Goalies: About 4 million

Total: 57 million

This suggestion was only over the cap because I decided to try to sign both Goc and Malholtra, though we could easily have done with just one of them.

As this stands the Oilers would have to shed some salary and they would have a hard time doing it without moving one of Souray, Gilbert, Grebeshkov, Penner, Cogliano/O'Sullivan or Pisani. Horcoff, Hemsky, Visnovsky, and Gagner are probably the untouchables. I love O'Sullivan but if I had to cast a vote it'd be him.

There is always the size issue with the second line, but that could also be resolved down the line before training camp.

Alternatively ...

Lineup

Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
O'Sullivan-Gagner-Cogliano
Upshall-Goc-Pisani (pending UFA)
Jacques-Pouliot-Stortini
Kennedy
MacIntyre
Brule

Forwards: About 29 million

Souray-Visnovsky
Gilbert-Grebeshkov
Peckham-Lebda
Strudwick

D-men: About 21 million

Khabibulin-DesLauriers

Goalies: About 4 million

Total: 54 million

Winnipeg Airport

2009-07-18T16:44:00.000-06:00

I met Don Cherry this morning. It was awesome.

Improving the NHL (and KHL?) - Mad Ramblings from A Hockey-Deprived Fan

2009-07-15T01:44:00.009-06:00

World Championship Hockey - No Stanley Cup on the line, but who would complate about hockey in summer? Can there be a new three-way deal for players in the NHL/KHL that the IIHF would support?

Advantages

Strong fan base in two nations, with potential for growth (though Bettman has not yet discovered the magical formula for converting people to hockey fans)
Hockey is the only major sport small enough to incorporate tiny Canadian markets as well as the largest American metropolitans
Increased competition due to 30 teams in a small league that is equipped with a salary cap
Loyalty by the NHL and NHLPA to traditional franchises (a la Edmonton, Pittsburgh)

Disadvantages

Ice is more expensive to maintain than dirt/grass/sod, or whatever, making grassroots development of the game impractical in Southern parts of the continent, due to temperature fluctuations going N to S
The other major hockey centers are across the pond in Europe (and to a limited degree, Asia), going W to E
Expansion quotas not strict enough, or nonexistent
82 game season

Suggestions for a better NHL (and better KHL, perhaps)

Either increase the number of teams so that more major markets are represented (I'm sure Toronto can handle another team, and how about Las Vegas?) or shrink the league to focus on saving the teams the NHL claims to be committed to - a lot of the current teams (Phoenix, Tampa Bay, to name a few) are annually in deep waters in terms of fan support and financial support
Shorter NHL season of 60-70 games, with a pre-playoffs wildcard round (5-10 games against other wildcards) for teams in the 7th -10th spots in each conference, focusing all the Spring attention on teams trying to get in, and not the teams who have already made it
Very short Champions league style of hockey tournament with private clubs from the top professional leagues participating, though it would require an NHLPA exemption for contracts signed for non-NHL competitive activity, with a separate paid bonus as agreed to both by the owner of the team, the NHL, and the player agent; this would another dimension to the existing dynamic of one-way and two-way contracts, perhaps giving birth to the three-way contract, referring to such tournaments; not sure what the NHLPA opinion is on the existing World Championships of Hockey, considering their current position on post-Vancouver Winter Olympics hockey participation by NHL players; an example would be if Ryan Potulny signed a three-way contract: if he never suited up for the Oilers for the 60-70 games or the subsequent playoffs (if any), he could still represent the team in off-season NHL club competitions with teams from the SEL or whatever, if the other players ahead of him in the depth chart don't have such bonuses or clauses in their existing contracts
This may be a problem for players who are oft-injured; perhaps the player would not receive the bonus or clause in their contract allowing for non-NHL professional competition

Why this helps the NHL:

Expanding to large markets provides revenue and buffer (damage absorption) if bad teams have to be relocated or moved, or in a worst-case-scenario, disbanded through a waiver draft
Shrinking to a manageable size just eliminates bad franchises outright
Playing less games in the tougher league (games that matter) means that veterans have more time to focus on the playoffs and off-season (for family, training, or whatever), whereas younger prospects and players have further advantages to development by representing the team in international tournaments; the only problem I can foresee is if a player is signed to one team in the KHL but is drafted by an NHL team - the player would have to honour their contract regardless
Playing a shorter season and having another competitive tournament to compete in means that NHL players have less time off the ice
With the World Championship and new tournament, players eliminated from the playoffs can still represent both their team and country in the off-season, contract permitting

Players to Sign / Players to Avoid

2009-07-09T02:41:00.007-06:00

Two Players to Avoid

1. Derek Morris

BTN (+/-) rating of -14 based on GFON of 35 and GAON of 49
BTN reports Morris as having a -8.2 Corsi number
NHL (+/-) rating of -10 and 7 out of his 20 points were attained on special teams, accounting for 35% of his total offense

For someone who is touted as an offensive defenseman, this guy is a defensive and offensive black hole by any statistical measure. His Corsi number would be understandable if he was a defensive defenseman, but his Corsi is even lower than Rob Scuderi (-7.9), whose main job is not to rush the puck but rather to get rid of it as quickly as he can.

Basically, Morris is a pretty bad choice as an offensive defenseman. And if the numbers are any indication, he wouldn't be a very good defensive defenseman either.

2. Niclas Havelid

BTN stats are pretty much on par with Steve Staios with nearly identical Corsi, (+/-), GFON and GAON, and for TOI/60
They are about the same age
Havelid had better QUALTEAM than Staios (yes, we mean Strudwick)

Havelid makes more money than Staios for doing pretty much the same job and we all love Steady Steve but Grebs is just one of the D-men on this team running laps around him. Adding Havelid would be a mistake.

Two Players to Sign

1. Alex Tanguay

50 GP, 16-25-41 with 24 PIM
2008-09 Salary of about 5.4 million
Corsi of -8.5 and a BTN (+/-) of +10
NHL (+/-) of +13
Condition: He has to take a pay cut over a term shorter than 4 years (perhaps a 2 year deal)

After a season like the one he just had, I think Tanguay would be willing to take a pay cut to stay in the NHL. He's still relatively young (29 yrs old) and has a few years of his best productivity ahead of him. Any deal shy of 4 years (perhaps a 2 year deal) could still yield great results out of Tanguay. However, it would require Tanguay to make Penner-like money to make it even close to financially feasible, along with the Oilers losing a few big ticket contracts (cough Souray, cough Nilsson).

One thing that stands out to me is that Tanguay is positive in all (+/-) departments despite being outshot so badly while on the ice. QUALCOMP and QUALTEAM don't really shed much light on this tidbit and hopefully a Montreal Canadiens fan could help me out on this front.

2. Christian Backman

2008-09 Salary of about 3.4 million
Size and strength to clear away opposing forwards from the front of the net
BTN stats indicate he has a Corsi of 13.8 and a BTN (+/-) of +6, which puts him in good company, though he lacks the offense of others in this category, such as Brian Campbell (52 points) and Dan Boyle (57 points), it would seem he's doing something right by perhaps keeping the puck in the zone or getting a lot of shots through to the net from the point; one thing's for certain, he manages to keep the puck out of his zone for most of the time he's on the ice
Condition: Steve Staios has to go

Backman makes less than Souray but more than Staios; in all honesty, I would rather him than Staios though, because he would make a good complement to an offensive juggernaut, perhaps Souray or perhaps Visnovsky. Experience gives Backman the advantage over Smid, who has loads of potential but isn't quite "there" yet.

The question is though, is Backman really worth 700 k more than Steve Staios? I think so. At his age and his given abilities, he could be a good replacement for Steady Steve at about 700 k more.

Lifetime Deals: Every skilled free agent is apparently a franchise player

2009-07-05T23:01:00.009-06:00

Howson on the Rick Nash signing:

"He allowed us some flexibility," Howson said. "He's aware that by signing this contract that other players will be able to get paid as well."

I wonder what his original contract demands were. At 7.8 million per year, there aren't many players making more than Rick Nash: only Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, Staal, and he's tied with Brad Richards. Would you say he is he worth more than:

Zdeno Chara
Niklas Lidstrom
Jarome Iginla
Roberto Luongo
Thomas Vanek
Joe Thornton
Pavel Datsyuk

I realize that the market prices for free agents fluctuates, and plus, who wouldn't take a discount to play in Detroit? But with the cap going down in the upcoming years and the price for free agents continuously increasing, we could be seeing the last off season where player free agents can sign outlandish long term contracts with large cap hits. When the cap goes down, I think we won't be seeing any more Marian Hossa or Danny Briere type of lifetime deals. It's just not plausible to treat every free agent player like a franchise player. It's fair to say that Rick Nash is as close as it gets to a franchise player in a Ryan Smyth type of way, but not in a Iginla, Zetterberg, and Luongo type of way. Simply put, Rick Nash is a great poward forward, but we haven't seen him dominate the league or lead his team deep into the playoffs, or make the players around him better. So far, he's been a good World Championships player.

But Danny Briere? Brian Campbell? Come on. These aren't franchise players. It's because the market is full of these crappy contracts that Rick Nash is "worth" 7.8 million per year. GM's can't keep signing these guys to ridiculous contracts because not all these guys are franchise players (whether the Thomas Vanek situation applies is up for debate, because at his cap hit, I bet the Sabres are thanking the Oilers now).

I just wonder how many of these lifetime deals included NMCs and NTCs?

Development Camp '09

2009-07-05T14:35:00.003-06:00

No Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson or Anton Lander. :-(

EDMONTON OILERS 2009 DEVELOPMENT CAMP ROSTER

Move 1: Nikolai Khabibulin

2009-07-01T14:29:00.004-06:00

Nikolai Khabibulin is an Oiler.

4 years @ 15 million (3.75/year).

Roloson signs in NYI for 2 years for 5 million (2.5/year).

Gomez VS Heatley

2009-07-01T03:16:00.006-06:00

First things first, I'm in the camp that likes a Heatley acquisition. And there are also those of you who are in the anti-Heatley camp. Reports are that he's going to sleep on it and maybe he'll waive his clause or maybe he'll reject the trade.

Who knows.

But for those who are worried that Heatley will wake up and decide to be an Oiler... that he brings loads of offense but also defensive liability... that he brings tons of intensity but no team spirit... I say:

At least we might be getting Dany Heatley for 7.5 million instead of Scott Gomez for 7.4 - I feel bad for Montreal fans tonight.

Gomez is worth 4.5 in the last year of his contract and Heatley is worth 5 in his, so there isn't even an advantage in terms of a cap reduction "last year of contract" UFA swap deal (a la Ryan Smyth NYI or Keith Tkachuk ATL). I think it's not even close if you want to compare Gomez to Heatley. Heatley has done pretty much what Gomez has done, and then some, in 200 less NHL games and he's almost 2 years younger. Value-wise, Gomez is not even within a pubic hair of the current Senators winger.

Simply put, if we acquire Heatley, at least we'll be better off than the Habs. That's not very reassuring to those of you who don't like Heatley, but we can't all agree.

Looks like I'll be looking for a new 2nd favourite team after July 1st.

1. Edmonton
2. ~~Montreal~~

------------------------------------

Antropov

Rumours are that Antropov wants a 5 year, 25 million dollar contract. Originally, I was interested in landing Antropov to flank Gagner's line.

Now I think it's Antropov's ticket to the KHL.

See you later Nik, and don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Forget the Souray to San Jose Rumours

2009-06-30T13:14:00.005-06:00

As reported per TSN, Rob Blake has resigned in San Jose. This still leaves the Souray to LA rumours in the balance, but three things must be considered:

a) does Souray want to leave Edmonton?
b) would Souray waive his NMC to go to LA?
c) does Edmonton even want to move Souray?

---------------------------------------

Ty Conklin Should Sign in Boston

I believe I heard somewhere that Boston will get the next outdoor game. Manny Fernandez is on his way out of town so... backup Conklin? He made 750K last season and should probably command around 1.2 million or 2 million max - half of what Fernandez made last season.

Excited

2009-06-30T01:16:00.003-06:00

I'm excited for July 5.

Björn Svensson

2009-06-28T23:27:00.009-06:00

Born June 16, 1986
5 ft 11.5 in
192 lbs

With the Oilers picking up Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson and Anton Lander, here's a look at Björn Svensson, another Timrå hockey player with WHL and SEL experience, and he's the older (half?) brother of Magnus.

Those numbers aren't too bad and they compare favourably to one Milan Kytnar (though Svensson is older), who signed an entry-level contract with the Oilers this past summer. With the current problem of Linus Omark going to the KHL to join his best friend and "attached at the hip" teammate Johan Harju, I think it would be benefitial to sign this overrage undrafted European player for two reasons:

Tambellini and Pendergast have talked about having more experienced offensive players on the Falcons roster, and Björn has lots of that. They've talked a bit about getting guys like Jason Krog. If the Björn is anything like Milan Kytnar or even his younger brother Magnus, he will bring a level of compete to the farm team that good development systems need in order to succeed. Plus, he may earn a call up a la Tim Sestito.
When Magnus is done with Timrå IK it may ease his transition to the Falcons, in the situation that he doesn't make the Oilers straight out of training camp in 2010-11.
The Oilers are serious about bringing over great talents and making them comfortable. Signing Björn may show Omark, and others (Hrabal?), that the Oilers really mean business about weening incoming talents and prospects.

You may ask, why does making a bunch of talented prospects comfortable in the system even matter? The Oilers shouldn't build their prospect base around Paajarvi-Svensson and Omark, you say.

However, I don't think it's about that AT ALL. The Detroit Red Wings have actually had worse drafting success overall than most teams. What's their secret?

How do you think the Red Wings convinced guys like Ville Leino, Jiri Hudler, and Jonathan Ericsson to work their way up through the AHL?

PLAYER RETENTION STRATEGIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You see, there are players like the Sedins and then there are Red Wings lifers, such as Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Franzen. Don't forget one Steve Yzerman as well.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

On another note, it seems the Oilers have a knack for picking up players with hyphens. Maybe it's what they notice first?

Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson
Marc-Antoine Pouliot
Marc-Andre Bergeron
Jeff Drouin-DesLauriers
Jean-François Jacques

------------------------------------------------------------------------

I've heard rumours about Rob Schremp getting a second wind with the arrival of Quinn and Renney. Any truth to this, you think?

Salary Cap is 56.8 million

2009-06-28T22:30:00.005-06:00

Money: I love it; the players love it; the league loves it.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=282925

Next year's Salary cap max is 56.8 million and the floor is 48 million.

The floor could be high for some teams. cough* Phoenix* cough* However this gives the Oilers a 1.8M breather (from the 55M predicted) considering they have maybe 6-7M overpaid in current assets. Also, the cap could possibly go down next year as this season may be more affected by the recession. So should the Oilers go out and get another inflated contract or do they grind it out and have the space for both a Gagner and Cogliano extension?

Paajarvi-Svensson

2009-06-28T14:44:00.003-06:00

Pretty soon, we'll all be able to spell Pääjärvi-Svensson without using Google.

Cycle like the Sedins: Strange Deadfellows double-team the Edmonton Oilers draft

2009-06-26T12:58:00.002-06:00

Draft preview courtesy thickoil and raventalon40, as reported by James O'Brien over at Cycle like the Sedins.

Cycle like the Sedins: Strange Deadfellows double-team the Edmonton Oilers draft

I wonder what his blog will be called when/if the Sedins sign elsewhere?

Rob them like Roberto?

Just a suggestion.

Cheap Role Players (cont'd): RFA List 2009

2009-06-24T03:19:00.000-06:00

The Oilers will probably try to find cheap role players to fill holes this season by more than just the UFA route. One such alternative is trading for RFA's or making offer sheets. Though the latter approach is more risky considering the compensation involved (see Penner) and less likely to be successful (see Backes), one can always acquire them and resign them afterwards (see Lupul).

I was going over this season's RFA list and found the following RFA's of interest:

Erik Christensen, C/LW
2008-09 Salary: $750,000

Kari Lehtonen, G
2008-09 Salary: $3,000,000

Colby Armstrong, RW
2008-09 Salary: $1,200,000

Matt Hunwick, D *1
2008-09 Salary: $775,000

Martin St. Pierre, C *2
2008-09 Salary: $500,000

Drew Stafford, RW *3
2008-09 Salary: $984,000

Cam Barker, D
2008-09 Salary: $984,200

Ben Eager, LW
2008-09 Salary: $650,000

Kris Versteeg, RW
2008-09 Salary: $490,000

Olle-Kristian Tollefsen, D *4
2008-09 Salary: $750,000

Jason Bacashihua, G
2008-09 Salary: $708,092

Kyle Cumiskey, D
2008-09 Salary: $475,000

Mark Fistric, D
2008-09 Salary: $650,000

Jiri Hudler, F *5
2008-09 Salary: $1,150,000

Ville Leino, LW
2008-09 Salary: $875,000

Steve Eminger, D
2008-09 Salary: $1,200,000

David Booth, LW
2008-09 Salary: $675,000

Dan Fritsche, C
2008-09 Salary: $875,000

Benoit Pouliot, C
2008-09 Salary: $850,000

Josh Harding, G
2008-09 Salary: $750,000

Christopher Higgins, C
2008-09 Salary: $1,900,000

Tomas Plekanec, C/LW
2008-09 Salary: $1,800,000

Kyle Chipchura, C/RW *6
2008-09 Salary: $860,000

Matt D'Agostini, RW
2008-09 Salary: $508,000

Travis Zajac, C/RW
2008-09 Salary: $984,200

Blake Comeau, RW *7
2008-09 Salary: $735,000

Sergei Ogorodnikov, C *8
2008-09 Salary: $600,000

Brandon Dubinsky, C
2008-09 Salary: $635,000

Scottie Upshall, LW
2008-09 Salary: $1,250,000

Enver Lisin, RW *9
2008-09 Salary: $850,000

Marcel Goc, C
2008-09 Salary: $775,000

Thomas Greiss, G
2008-09 Salary: $725,000

Tomas Plihal, LW *10
2008-09 Salary: $500,000

Jeff Woywitka, D *11
2008-09 Salary: $725,000

Roman Polak, D *12
2008-09 Salary: $475,000

Matt Lashoff, D *13
2008-09 Salary: $685,000

Jannick Hansen, RW
2008-09 Salary: $500,000

Eric Fehr, RW *14
2008-09 Salary: $735,000

Matt Hunwick - a player that was rumoured to Edmonton at the recent trade deadline
Martin St. Pierre - Guy Flaming talks about this player as a potential pickup as a seasoned veteran offensive player for the farm in Springfield
Drew Stafford - thickoil loves this guy. Great player, bound to get a raise this off season.
Olle-Kristian Tollefsen - big guy does it all: block shots, fight, play hard
Jiri Hudler - this guy was almost an Oiler when Frank Musil recommended him to the Edmonton scouting staff; Detroit snapped him up first
Kyle Chipchura - my favourite on this list; team captain of his WJC team and team captain of the Hamilton Bulldogs who won the Calder Cup in 2007
Blake Comeau - he was the linemate of Tyler Spurgeon and Troy Bodie for the "Network Line," and he would make a great Springfield addition
Sergei Ogorodnikov - there has been talk that S.O. was having adjusting to the North American game in terms of an offensive game but you can't deny the leadership factor that e brings, and he could be a solid farm player in the mold of a Kytnar or Pisani (and a cheap replacement for that bum O'Marra)
Enver Lisin - another speedy skilled forward in the mold of Ville Leino and Jani Rita: the catch is this guy doesn't want to play in the AHL and that's really where he belongs at this point
Tomas Plihal - this checking forward has decent hands and is a cheap plugger
Jeff Woywitka - journeyman defenseman who is no stranger to Edmonton
Roman Polak - some think this guy is ready to play a top-4 role as a shut-down D-man opposite a good-to-medium offensively skilled D-man
Matt Lashoff - another D-man who was rumoured to Edmonton at the last trade deadline
Eric Fehr - the Oilers wanted to draft this guy but Washington got him; the Oilers have a history of acquiring guys they missed out on drafting (Nilsson, Pitkanen, etc.) and I wouldn't be surprised if they did it again with Fehr because this is one good hockey player; more on Eric Fehr here

If I had to pick one, just one RFA out of the entire list, it'd have to be Drew Stafford. The only problem is I doubt that Buffalo lets this guy get away and so realistically speaking, I think a guy like Chipchura, Polak, or Fehr would benefit the Oilers.

On the goaltending front, Lehtonen and Bacashihua seem to be the only goalies that have any NHL experience worth mentoining, though both have been known to be injury-prone.

Cheap Role Players and the 55 Million Challenge

2009-06-23T00:59:00.021-06:00

The Challenge: Forge a competitive NHL team with 55 million or less

I was thinking back to Lowetide's blog post on cap bargain players and that got me thinking about how the Oilers could potentially still compete as a team though they will very likely be picking a very high priced player this off-season.

Let's be honest with ourselves: Katz failed to sign Hossa last year and with the loss of Reasoner and Glencross, I'm sure he won't let the next big ticket get away. It's almost guaranteed that Katz will make sure one of Heatley, Gaborik, or Hossa will be Tambellini's next successful acquisition via trade or free agent signing. Even if it's not one of those three, something big will happen. He's opened the books to the coaches when he signed Quinn and Renney. Here come the player pay cheques too!

But Oilers admin, Oilers fan, and the Oilogosphere alike are well aware of the cheap contracts the Oilers had during the o5-06 cup run and how they are necessary to have more talent than is proportional to the salary being paid. It is interesting that despite the way the last two seasons ended (just out of the playoffs but on different terms) it would seem that the window of opportunity just opened up again.

This is not the first Armchair GM/Potential Scenario kind of shindig that I've thrown together in the last few weeks but the main focus for this scenario is the acquisition of cheap role players and bonafide NHL talent at reasonable prices.

The Lineup (Summary)

LW Heatley C Horcoff RW Hemsky
LW Cogliano C Pavelski RW Gagner
LW Moreau C UFA Center RW Pisani
LW Jacques C Brodziak RW Stortini
F MacIntyre
F Reddox

D Visnovsky D Grebeshkov
D Ehrhoff D Smith
D Gorges D Peckham
D Zanon
D Ole-Kristian Tollefsen

G Lehtonen G Harding
G Perugini

Salary: 52.457 million + ????

DETAILS BELOW!

Forwards - 29.757 million + ????

LW Heatley $7.5/7.0
C Horcoff $5.5
RW Hemsky $4.1

LW Cogliano $1.133
C Pavelski $1.637
RW Gagner $1.625

LW Moreau $2.0
C Fiddler/Yelle EST $1.0
RW Pisani $2.5

LW Jacques $0.525
C Brodziak EST $1.0
RW Stortini $0.7

F MacIntyre $0.537
F Reddox ????
F Chipchura ????
F Spurgeon ????
F Stone ????
F Kytnar ????

Though I would like to see Gratton in an Oiler uniform for faceoff purposes alone I also consider the fact that the Oilers passed on him when he was on waivers. So realistically, Vernon Fiddler, Stephane Yelle or Mike Zigomanis are better options. I also wouldn't rule out the chances of one of the farmhands surprising at TC 09-10 considering the Tyler Spurgeon faceoff winning checking center is just the type of player the Oilers are looking for, and would cost less than a Fiddler, Yelle, or Zigomanis, though the latter options would have more veteran experience in the position.

And btw, I would love to see either Stone or Spurgeon in Oiler uniforms this upcoming season. Here's to their showing up to the TC party.

Defense - 17.2 million + ????

D Visnovsky $5.6
D Grebeshkov $3.2

D Ehrhoff$3.3
D Smith $2.6

D Gorges $1.1
D Peckham $0.6

D Zanon EST $0.8
D Ole-Kristian Tollefsen ????

One thing stands out the most to me: Theo Peckham is ready for full time work and I believe he can do the job that Smid or Staios does, and perhaps eventually, do it better.

In this scenario, a Jay Bouwmeester signing doesn't happen on account of too much salary to dump. If Heatley can be acquired without taking back defensive salary, then perhaps a move here and a move there could accomondate the large salary J-Bo is bound to be asking for. The catch: the Oilers can't have 3 big ticket D-men. At least not in my imaginary scenarios where I get to call the shots (LOL!).

Goaltending - 5.5 million + ????

G Lehtonen EST 3.0
G Harding EST 2.5

Combined with Harding, Lehtonen would make a great 1A/1B combination.

G Perugini (I think he warrants this position on the depth chart)

Total Salary - 52.457 million + ????
Verdict: Challenge can be met

Requisite Trades

(EDM) Tom Gilbert + Dustin Penner + prospect for (OTT) Dany Heatley + Jason Smith + low draft pick (5th or lower)
(EDM) Sheldon Souray + prospect + 2nd round pick for (SJS) Pavelski + Ehrhoff
(EDM) Marc-Antoine Pouliot + Steve Staios + Ladislav Smid for (MTL) Kyle Chipchura + Josh Gorges + prospect
(EDM) Patrick O'Sullivan for (MIN) Josh Harding
(EDM) Jeff DesLauriers for (CLB) Olle-Kristian Tollefsen
(EDM) Robert Nilsson + draft picks or prospects for (ATL) Kari Lehtonen

Trade #1 - Why does Ottawa accept this trade?

Ottawa is in a corner when it comes to the Heatley trade demands and if they deal a top 6 LW they will need a top 6 LW in return. Seeing as they would be accepting way too much salary, the Oilers would need to pick up some salary, most likely Smith, in return.
There are a lot of teams out there that need scoring, but I have no doubt that Edmonton and Vancouver are the most desperate right now. The Oilers have better assets to give up.

Trade #2 - Why does San Jose accept this trade?

Firstly, if I was San Jose, I would want to keep Joe Pavelski. However, the loss of Rob Blake means a need for a big D-man who can play both the PP and the PK. Pavelski is due for a pay raise soon and that means one of Marleau or Cheechoo would have to be traded and perhaps San Jose is willing to part with Pavelski instead, with the added incentive of some skilled prospects (Schremp? Omark?) and a high draft pick.
Sheldon Souray is a slight upgrade on Christian Ehrhoff, who is significantly more expensive than his counterparts Vlasic and Murray. This may mean Ehrhoff is expendable to San Jose.

Trade #3 - Why does Montreal accept this trade?

We all know that Bob Gainey has pretty much nobody on contract into next season. He has a whackload of prospects and RFAs to resign and perhaps he is willing to part with former WJC star and Team Canada captain Kyle Chipchura. Pouliot is on a pretty fair contract and he's got size and speed.
Also, looking at Montreal's D-core one first notices the lack of veteran leadership with the exception of the hardened Hamrlik and the marksmen Markov. The re-acquisition of Jason Smith leaves Steve Staios expendable. Josh Gorges at $1.0 M is not bad for a third pairing offensive defenseman. Sure is cheaper than Marc-Andre Bergeron at $1.6 M.
First off, I would love to keep Smid. But I have heard rumours of his not wanting to play in Edmonton, let alone on a third pairing. Smid is coming into his own and would probably form part of Montreal's new second pairing (LOL!) of Staios-Smid. Sure beats playing Ryan O'Byrne every night for 25 minutes, I'll tell you that much. And Edmonton gets a decent prospect in return for Smid. Win-win.

Trade #4 - Why does Minnesota accept this trade?

Minnesota loves Patrick O'Sullivan. Edmonton loves Josh Harding. I'm sure we can work things out in terms of the specifics but this seems to me to be a trade made in heaven.
The teams out east that need goaltending (Philadelphia, Tampa Bay) are not looking like favourable outlets for Harding. I don't think Minnesota will mind trading within the division, since both players involved have played very limited time for their respective teams.
O'Sullivan would easily be in the top 6 forward bracket for Minnesota.

Trade #5 - Why does Columbus accept this trade?

Well, there's always the Scott Howson factor.
Steve Mason is on a cheap contract. I'm also sure that Howson is interested in acquiring a veteran backup for the Calder trophy winner Mason, but he would save a lot of money by acquiring cheap backup DesLauriers as opposed to more expensive options such as Khabibulin or Roloson (who would also be applied to the Howson factor). Mason proved this season that he's ready for the starting job.
Olle-Kristian Tollefsen is a pending RFA and this would take one more thing off of Howson's mind. He's a big strong defenseman of the Hal Gill model but perhaps with better passing. He would be a cheap Ladislav Smid replacement (though his skating does not compare) and an upgrade on Jason Strudwick.

Trade #6 - Why does Atlanta accept this trade?

Simply put, Atlanta has not offensive depth. They emptied the vaults for the Keith Tkachuk episode and it hurt them bad.
Ondrej Pavelec may not necessarily be ready for the big show but I'm sure that if the Oilers offered Robert Nilsson it would be great starting point for discussing a potential trade for Kari Lehtonen.

It is also possible that the Oilers keep DesLauriers and trade Cogliano. The Oilers are wary of trading Cogliano, as per every source made available thus far on the internet, but if the right return is available, don't think Tambellini won't make the move.

Shout out to Boys on the Bus, who has a pretty good thing going even though they just started out. Welcome to the Oilogosphere.

With all that math said and done, here is a similar lineup.

A Similar Lineup

LW Heatley C Horcoff RW Hemsky
LW Antropov* C Pavelski RW Gagner
LW Moreau C UFA Center RW Pisani
LW Jacques C Brodziak RW Stortini
F Hudler
F MacIntyre
F Helm

D Visnovsky D Grebeshkov
D Kronwall D Smith
D Gorges D Peckham
D Ole-Kristian Tollefsen
D Chorney

G Gustavsson** G Harding
G Perugini

Salary: Around 54 million, depending on Gustavsson
(this scenario has no Greg Zanon signing)

* Antropov plays both wings
** Gustavsson may have no NHL experience but he's an international sensation I believe he would make a great tandem with Harding

Requisite Trades

(EDM) Tom Gilbert + Dustin Penner + prospect for (OTT) Dany Heatley + Jason Smith + low draft pick (5th or lower)
(EDM) Sheldon Souray + prospect + 2nd round pick for (SJS) Pavelski + Ehrhoff
(EDM) Marc-Antoine Pouliot + Steve Staios + Ladislav Smid for (MTL) Kyle Chipchura + Josh Gorges + prospect
(EDM) Patrick O'Sullivan for (MIN) Josh Harding
(EDM) Jeff DesLauriers for (CLB) Olle-Kristian Tollefsen
(EDM) Robert Nilsson + draft picks or prospects for (ATL) Kari Lehtonen
(EDM) Christian Ehrhoff + Andrew Cogliano + Robert Nilsson for Niklas Kronwall + Jiri Hudler + Darren Helm + low draft picks

Trade #7 - Why does Detroit accept this trade?

One can dream... yeah I know this would put the Red Wings over the cap. This is because Kronwall makes less than Ehrhoff and Nilsson makes way more than Helm. Perhaps the Oilers could swallow some salary for the Red Wings, who knows. Oh yeah, there's also that business about Kronwall being a more complete defenseman than Ehrhoff.
However, Cogliano played college hockey in Michigan and would probably be a known player to the Red Wings local scouts. Cogliano is arguably just as good as most of the Red Wings young players (Hudler, Helm) and perhaps better than some. Nilsson is a pure salary dump but I'm sure the Red Wings will love his skill.
Hudler is a pending RFA. Edmonton can take that RFA off their hands considering all the other contracts Detroit has handed out and is yet to hand out this off season. They aren't going to resign Mikael Samuelsson... but do they have enough to resign Hudler after opening the books for Franzen?
Hudler doesn't fit into this Edmonton lineup right off the bat but he could yield a return if someone tries to sign him to an offer sheet. If not, we could flip him for more assets later on in the off season or regular season.

That's it folks.

Pre-Draft Notes & Rumours Discussion

2009-06-22T15:23:00.006-06:00

This is David Rundblad taking a slap shot from the point.

More on him later.

Who I want (at 10th overall):

Besides the obvious players who won't be available at the 10th spot (Tavares, Hedman, Kane), here are the players I think realistically will be available and should be Oilers property come time to draft.

When it comes to this year's draft I think it's time for Tambellini to try to draft something that is as close to a low-risk pick as possible: that pretty much means he has to pick a player he knows will be an NHL competitor. Here's the list of players whose bios and descriptions I've read and come across as the best potentially available at 10th overall.

DMITRY KULIKOV, D, Drummondville (QMJHL)
SCOTT GLENNIE, RW, Brandon (WHL)
STEFAN ELLIOT, D, Saskatoon (WHL)
RYAN ELLIS, D, Windsor (OHL)
JACOB Josefson, C, Djurgården (Sweden)
DAVID RUNDBLAD, D, Skelleftea (Sweden)
TIM ERIXON, D, Skelleftea (Sweden)

Kulikov's description reminds me a bit of Niklas Kronwall of the Detroit Red Wings or Zach Bogosian of the Atlanta Thrashers. Strong, skilled, and takes the hit to make the play as well as a great outlet pass. Hopefully he can be our next Boris Mironov - and then some.

As for Glennie, it's been beat to death how he's the prototype strong Western Canadian hockey brainchild and I think he has the makings of a pretty good top 6 forward. He's got the skills and smarts to be a Paul Stastny type though who knows how high the ceiling actually is for him.

When it comes to Ryan Ellis, myself an others (including Dean Millard) are unconvinced that he warrants a 10th overall selection, but he certainly puts some of the other NHL prospects to shame in terms of his pure skill, smarts, and point shot alone. Not that Ellis projects to be a bad NHL player by any merit, mind you. His comparables, Letang, Rafalski, Russell, are all good defenseman. But is he the best player at 10th? He certainly is a 1st round pick in this year's draft, though - because that is the consensus and that's why we have the CSS. A bigger version of Ryan Ellis would be Stefan Elliot.

As for the rest of the D-men I've listed, I think you can never draft too many smart hockey players (especially smart defensemen) and each of the last 4 players are likened and have specifically noted that they pattern their games after the likes of Zetterberg, Lidström, and Crosby. Though patterning your game after someone doesn't necessarily mean anything, the scouting reports show that at least these 4 players have had some success at picking up those skills. And that is why I like Elliot, Rundbald, and Erixon: they sound more ready to pick up a NHL style of game and already have a puck possesion mentality. On another note, Rundblad and Elliot are noted as having big point shots.

Who I don't want (at 10th overall):

When it comes to these players, I still think they are great prospects but don't believe they warrant a 10th overall selection. I believe these players to be middle first (15th overall) to early 2nd round (40th overall) type of players. These are still really skilled, but aren't necessarily the type of players the Oilers need right now.

OLIVER Ekman Larsson, D, Skelleftea (Sweden-2)
ZACH KASSIAN, RW, Peterborough (OHL)
NAZEM KADRI, C, London (OHL)

Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a great hockey player in his own right and has been compared to Lidström as well. But it doesn't say anywhere about his determination to improve as a hockey player the way it does for Erixon or Josefson. Also, Ekman-Larsson plays in a lower tier and won't be ready for NHL hockey (let alone full time NHL minutes) for a long time. Most NHL D-men are long term projects but I expect Ekman-Larsson to be a extended project in himself. He has the skills - but can he adjust to North American hockey? Will he play in the AHL?

I still love Zach Kassian and think he will be a great NHL player, but I'm on the fence about whether he'll become a Travis Zajac type or a Brad Isbister type.

As for Nazem Kadri, I think that Rob Schremp is a good comparable and had/has better upside than Kadri. Kadri has more size but does he have more pluck than Schremp? Kadri has a reputation of not using his team mates nor presenting any form of backcheck or forecheck. Certainly, this is just a reputation.

Rumours Discussion

It has come to my attention that the Oilers are interested in signing Nik Antropov as a Dustin Penner replacement. This has certain implications:

Nik Antropov is estimated to make less than Dustin Penner's 4.250 million
This would spell the reunification of Pat Quinn and Antropov
Antropov is a RW, Penner is a LW; this means one of O'Sullivan or Nilsson will likely keep their job, unless Cogliano is capable of switching wings; thus far Cogliano has played C/RW
This may be confirmation that Penner may be in play for Dany Heatley
If Antropov is signed, Gaborik is likely not an option (because Antropov is UFA, but Penner/Heatley are both signed to contracts and must be acquired/dumped via trade)

Would Antropov actually be an improvement? The same knocks on Dustin Penner (desire, pluck, consistency) are commonly cited for Antropov as well. However, Antropov is coming out of a hockey hotbed that is actually more critical of their players than Edmonton is and one has to wonder if Antropov is actually as bad as a lot of fans make him out to be. He was one of New York's better players after the deadline. That doesn't say much about Scott Gomez or Chris Drury, I'll tell you that much.

The one thing that Antropov has you can't teach and that's size. He's got a ton of skill that he doesn't use often and I wonder if he's an upgrade on another Oiler castoff: Ales Kotalik?!!!!

I think the Oilers would also save a ton of money by resigning Kotalik but would we be a better team for it?

Here's what the Oilers forward lineup would look like in such a circumstance:

Kotalik-Horcoff-Hemsky
Cogliano-Gagner-Antropov
Moreau-UFA Center-Pisani
Jacques-Brodziak-Stortini
Reddox
Smac

There would be plenty of salary to dump but lots left over to sign/acquire a goaltender. This lineup would have plenty of size and skill to go around, but a lot of question marks in the consistency dept. (see Kotalik, Antropov).

Considering a potential Heatley acquisition, the picture gets more twisted:

Heatley-Horcoff-Hemsky
Cogliano-Gagner-Antropov
Moreau-UFA Center-Pisani
Jacques-Brodziak-Stortini
Reddox
Smac

Brodziak could potentially move up and fill the 3rd line center role but it would be a better idea to get a seasoned veteran to play that role. Perhaps Malholtra, Gratton, or Fiddler. How much would such UFA Centers command on the open market?

Such a lineup above would be highly skilled but a bit strapped for cash.

I'm all for acquiring Heatley but also recognize that filling out the rest of the top 6 with cheap but effective contracts will be a very tough and trying task for Tambellini.

Mission Impossible

2009-06-22T10:43:00.004-06:00

Due to the cap going down to 55, and the highly rumored chances of the Oilers getting Jay Bouwmeester and/or Dany Heatley. I've been wondering if it's plausible at all to get under our cap. Since the forecasters have predicted a 55M ceiling, that's what I'm going to target.

Deal 1:
Penner+Gilbert/Souray+10th
for
Dany Heatley

Although some may scoff at Penner heading the other way, Murray did bring him up in Anaheim and has that connection. Ottawa is also in a situation, that they will most likely get some for of cap dump back. Even if the Oilers don't do the deal for Heatley, I see Ottawa getting a Top 6 forward with mediocore to bad contract, a younger offensive high potential d-man, and a combination of A+prospects/draft picks.

Deal 2:
Gilbert/Souray
for
Jay Bouwmeesters rights.

then

Sign Jay Bouwmeester for 10 years/65M (6.5 Cap hit)

Florida most likely does this instantly. It may not be the best trade from the Oilers perspective, but it allows us to get negotiating rights for a player that actually wants to play here.

So far I've moved, out 4.25+4+5.4=13.65 and brought in 6.5+7.5=14 which is only a 0.35 cap increase.

Next we resign Grebeshkov for 3 years/10M for a 3.33 hit. (Rumored to be a 3 year@9.75 deal atm)

We resign, Smid to a 3 year/5M for a 1.67 hit
We resign Brodziak to a 3 year/5M for a 1.67 hit
Sign Zanon to a 3 year/6M for a 2 hit.
Sign Betts to a 2 year/2.5M fora 1.25 hit.
Offer Nilsson+Staois elsewheres for picks/prospects
OS Harding for a 3.25 hit.

Heatley-Horcoff-Hemsky
O'Sullivan-Gagner-Cogliano
Moreau-Brodziak/Betts-Pisani
Jacques-Brodziak/Betts-Stortini

Bouwmeester-Visnovsky
Grebeshkov-Smid
Zanon-Peckham

Harding
Deslauriers

For a total hit of 54.058 according to my excel spreadsheet. The best part is that Pisani and Moreaus contracts are up soon and most likely won't resign at the inflated prices they were at. This would give us more cap room for the Gagner extension. Our bottom 2 on D could also be questionable, and if people prefer Staois, you could move O'Sullivan and keep Nilsson around in order to keep Staois.

Scenario 4

2009-06-21T13:09:00.006-06:00

Heatley-Horcoff-Hemsky
Cogliano-Gagner-Antropov
Moreau-Malholtra-Pisani
Jacques-Brodziak-Stortini
MacIntyre
Reddox

Visnovsky-Grebeshkov
Gilbert-Smid
Peckham-Staios
Strudwick

Antero Niittymaki
Jeff DesLauriers

Estimated Salaries

Antropov - 3-3.5 million - let's say 3.2 million
Malholtra - 1.5-3 million - let's say 2.1 million
Grebeshkov - 3.0-3.5 million - let's say 3.2 million
Niittymaki - 1.2-2.5 million - let's say 1.7 million

Brodziak - 1.0 M
Reddox - 0.7 M
Smid - 1.3 M
Strudwick - 0.5 M

Total Salary: 56.670 million * **

* Heatley has an estimated cap hit of 7.0 M with his remaining salary and remaining contract term, not including the 4 M signing bonus due July 1st.

** NHL Numbers is estimating the cap to go down to around 55 million next season. I will continue to assume that floating in around 56 is O.K.

Potential Lineups... Because I'm Bored

2009-06-18T15:35:00.009-06:00

This is Joe Pavelski.

He scored 24-34-59 in 80 GP with 717 faceoffs won and 557 faceoffs lost, for a FO% of 56.3. More on Joe later.

For each of the listed players, the first number is the current cap hit of the player as calculated by entire contract divided by length of term by the team that signed them and/or at the time of acquisition. The second number is the remaining contract to be paid over the remaining term starting in the 2009-10 season.

WARNING:

Feel free to chip in for/against my proposals but do NOT take any of them seriously. I'm just trying to shoot the shit (pardon my French) for this upcoming off season of major change.

Oilers Players on the Block (Rumoured)

Sheldon Souray - 5.400 (EDM) / 4.833
Dustin Penner - 4.250 (EDM) / 4.250
Tom Gilbert - 4.000 (EDM) / 4.100
Patrick O'Sullivan - 2.925 (EDM) / 2.388
Steve Staios - 2.700 (EDM) / 2.500
Robert Nilsson - 2.000 (EDM) / 2.250
Ethan Moreau - 2.000 (EDM) / 1.750
Andrew Cogliano - 1.133 (EDM) / 1.133

LW Players on the Market (Rumoured)

Dany Heatley - 7.500 (OTT) / 7.000*
Marco Sturm - 3.500 (BOS) / 3.500
Alexander Frolov - 2.900 (LAK) / 4.000
Wojtek Wolski - 2.800 (COL) / 3.100

For reference:
Daniel/Henrik Sedin - 6.083 (VAN) 6.083 link
Joe Pavelski - 1.637 (SJS) / 1.725**

* He has a 4 million signing bonus due July 1.
** Joe Pavelski is not actually on the block. He is here for reference only. I would love to acquire him for the Oilers, though.

Statistics

Dany Heatley, LW
82 GP, 39-33-72, 88 PIM

Marco Sturm, LW
19 GP, 7-6-13, 8 PIM

Alexander Frolov, LW
77 GP, 32-27-59, 30 PIM

Wojtek Wolski, LW
78 GP, 14-28-42, 28 PIM

Oilers Organizational Needs

Goaltending
Size
Scoring
Defensive Depth @ Cheaper Rates

Firstly, I want to say I was surprised that Heatley would cost us less than previously thought, though the discount is only 500k per year, if the signing bonus can be avoided.

Secondly, I was surprised to find that signing one of the Sedins would be cheaper than signing Heatley. That being said, you have to sign both the Sedins if you're gonna sign them at all.

Thirdly, I put size before scoring on the team chart because Edmonton scored a lot of goals this season but couldn't keep them out of the net. This is also why goaltending is higher up the list.

Other potential FA signings on the market, such as Marian Gaborik, will also be sniffing about in the 5.5 - 7.5 M / year range. This is probably where Marian Hossa would fall as well, because even with the season he just had, I think the Red Wings set the precedent for what a player like Hossa is worth. I don't think the Oilers would still offer him 8 M+ / year as they did last summer.

Scenario 1: Heatley/Bouwmeester come to Edmonton
Scenario 2: Sedins come to Edmonton
Scenario 3: Oilers remain as status quo as possible, and add role players as opposed to star players

Scenario 1A

Heatley - Horcoff - Hemsky
Wolski - Pavelski - Gagner
Moreau - Zigomanis - Pisani
Donovan - Brodziak - Stortini
Jacques
Stone
MacIntyre
Reddox

Visnovsky - Grebeshkov
Bouwmeester - Smid
Peckham - Strudwick
Chorney

???
Jeff DesLauriers

Assumptions made:

Bouwmeester will make 6 million, MAX
Grebeshkov will resign for around 3.2 million, MAX
Strudwick will resign for around 500 K
Zigomanis will make 1.2 million, MAX
Brodziak will resign for 500 K, MAX (truth is, I know he will sign for more)
San Jose is willing to part with the cheap scoring forward, Pavelski (probably the biggest assumption I made in the whole thing)