Oilers Playoff Chances After Vancouver Win

Oilers won a big game tonight in big fashion. Sam Gagner said after the game that they played the same tonight as every other night but I disagree: the desperation was crystal clear tonight and it should stay that way for the last 3 games. Sam Gagner had a big game and everyone else did too. I didn't watch the San Jose game but I heard they were pretty desperate in that game too. It was a playoff atmosphere out there and for once I was convinced that the Oilers were in the midst of a playoff race.

What is it about Vancouver that brings out the best in the Oilers? It just might be playing 6 games instead of 8 against divisional opponents that does the Oilers in this year (Vancouver, Colorado).

So what exactly are the Oilers' chances at making the playoffs? Jonathan Willis would probably cringe at these stats I'm about to use but I think they will give a good preview of what to expect. The LOSS % will not be a projection into the future, but is instead a number that represents the historical ratio. I wish I could tell the future, but I can't.

Playoff Analysis

Current Standings

7 Anaheim 79 GP 41 W 32 L 6 OT 88 PTS
8 Nashville 79 GP 39 W 32 L 8 OT 86 PTS
9 St. Louis 79 GP 38 W 31 L 10 OT 86 PTS
10 Minnesota 78 GP 37 W 32 L 9 OT 83 PTS
11 Edmonton 79 GP 37 W 33 L 9 OT 83 PTS

Anaheim's Last 3 Games:

1) Sunday, April 5 - Sharks @ Ducks
Season Series: 2-3-0
Edge: The Ducks pummeled the Sharks 5-2 today. The Ducks have outscored the Sharks 10-9. There is no edge to either the Sharks or the Ducks, but for the Oilers' sake, they will get their retribution Sunday. Losses: 60% - but no advantage to either team. The Sharks are the better team but the Ducks have something to play for.
2) Friday, April 10 - Stars @ Ducks
Season Series: 2-2-1
Edge: The Stars have outscored the Ducks 16-13. Losses: 60% - but like the Sharks/Ducks series there is no advantage to either team. The Stars play the spoiler role while the Ducks are fighting for a playoff spot. It is somewhat surprising that the Stars have outscored the Ducks but one look back sees a lot of the games went to OT and SO. Edmonton better hope that the Stars can win and in regulation because those extra points in OT losses by the Ducks will hurt the Oilers in the long run.
3) Saturday, April 11 - Ducks @ Coyotes
Season Series: 4-1-0
Edge: Definitely Anaheim, who have outscored Phoenix 20-11. Losses: 20% - Phoenix has not been a very good spoiler team this year - except against Edmonton.
Conclusion on Anaheim: With an average loss history of 46.7%, it is fair to say that the Oilers shouldn't count on getting any help from the teams that play the Ducks, especially if they keep racking up the extra points in OT sessions.

Nashville's Last 3 Games:

1) Tuesday, April 7 - Blackhawks @ Predators
Season Series: 3-2-0
Edge: Neither. The Preds have outscored the Blackhawks 14-10. There is some major offense on both teams but the Preds have had the answer against the Hawks this season. Losses: 40% - with a slight advantage to the Preds.
2) Thursday, April 9 - Predators @ Red Wings
Season Series: 3-2-0
Edge: Neither. The Preds have outscored the Wings 20-16, but mostly due to a lopsided 8-0 win back in February. Advantage Nashville. Losses: 40% - but like the Sharks/Ducks series there is no advantage to either team. The mighty Wings have been embarassed all season by the Preds who seem to have the answer to their system. And this is likely to get more lopsided considering the Preds are trying to secure a playoff spot.
3) Friday, April 10 - Predators @ Wild
Season Series: 2-1-0
Edge: Predators. The Wild have outscored the Preds 6-5 but have been shutout by them twice in a row, which reveals a deeper offensive problem. Losses: 33.3% - Nashville has been hungrier than Minnesota of late.
Conclusion on Nashville: With an average loss history of 37.8%, it is fair to say that the Oilers shouldn't count on getting any help from the teams that play the Preds, especially since Nashville has been good offensively and defensively. The funny part is that their offensve has clicked against the offense-laden Red Wings and their defense has clicked by shutting out the defense-first Wild.

St. Louis' Last 3 Games:

1) Tuesday, April 7 - Blues @ Coyotes
Season Series: 3-0-0
Edge: Blues - but only slightly. The Blues have outscored the Coyotes 9-5, but they have not completely dominated them as they won by 1 goal in 2 of them. Losses: 0% - but only a slight advantage to the Blues.
2) Friday, April 10 - Blue Jackets @ Blues
Season Series: 4-1-0
Edge: Blues. The Blues have outscored the Blue Jackets 21-13. Losses: 20% - the Blues have completed dominated the Blue Jackets this season but Columbus has points in 7 of their last 8 games, so they will definitely put up a fight.
3) Sunday, April 12 - Blues @ Avalanche
Season Series: 2-1-0
Edge: Blues. The Blues have outscored the Avs 10-6 with two straight wins. Losses: 33.3% - the Avalanche are done like dinner.
Conclusion on St. Louis: With an average loss history of 17.8%, it is fair to say that the Oilers shouldn't count on getting any help from the teams that play the Blues. Of all the teams the Oilers are chasing, St. Louis has the easiest schedule.

Minnesota's Last 4 Games:

1) Sunday, April 5 - Wild @ Red Wings
Season Series: 1-1-1
Edge: Red Wings - but only slightly. Both teams have scored 9 goals apiece and one of the Red Wings' wins came in OT. The last meeting was a Wild 5-2 win. Losses: 66.7% - but don't count out Minnesota's ability to stifle the Red Wings' weapons.
2) Tuesday, April 7 - Stars @ Wild
Season Series: 0-2-1
Edge: Stars. The Stars have outscored the Wild 11-7. Though most losses were close games and one loss was in OT, the Wild do not know what to do about the stars. Losses: 100% - this is the last chance for the Wild to win against the Stars and I wouldn't count on it happening.
3) Friday, April 10 - Predators @ Wild
Season Series: 2-1-0
Edge: Predators. The Wild have outscored the Preds 6-5 but have been shutout by them twice in a row, which reveals a deeper offensive problem. Losses: 33.3% - Nashville has been hungrier than Minnesota of late.
4) Saturday, April 11 - Wild @ Blue Jackets
Season Series: 2-1-0
Edge: Neither. The Blue Jackets are good at getting those OT points and both teams have 7 goals in the season series. Losses: 33.3% - should be an interesting game to see if Blue Jackets can even the season series.
Conclusion on Minnesota: With an average loss history of 58.3%, it is fair to say that the Oilers can count on the Wild continuing their losing ways against these 4 teams. It will still be close, though.

Edmonton's Last 3 Games:

1) Tuesday, April 7 - Kings @ Oilers
Season Series: 2-1-0
Edge: Oilers - but only slightly. The Oilers have outscored the Kings 9-7, but they have not had any real edge as all games between the two have been won by 1 goal. Losses: 33.3% - the Kings are playing spoiler this time of year but their are a lot of ex-Oilers and ex-Kings on both sides and it could get intense.
2) Friday, April 10 - Flames @ Oilers
3) Saturday, April 11 - Oilers @ Flames
Season Series: 2-1-1
Edge: Oilers - but only slightly. The Flames have outscored the Oilers 14-13 but one of those goals was awarded as the result of a SO win so it is actually a lot closer than it looks. Losses: 50% - the Flames are still fighting for a division title and home-ice advantage; the Oilers are fighting for their playoff lives. Should be interesting but it can swing either way.
Conclusion on Edmonton: With an average loss history of 41.6%, it is fair to say that the Oilers have a relatively easy schedule compared to Anaheim and Minnesota. Still, analyzing the teams that each of them are playing, it would seem that with the exception of Minnesota, there is no clear advantage for any team playing the teams that Edmonton is chasing. Frankly, even the teams that Edmonton is facing have not been easy wins for them this season. Simply put, the Oilers have their work cut out for them.

The Oilers' Circle of Friends for the Last 3 Games

• Phoenix Coyotes play the Ducks and the Blues
• Edmonton plays Calgary twice: the Flames need to lose
• Columbus Blue Jackets play the Blues and the Wild
• The Predators and the Wild both face the Detroit Red Wings

Cheer for Phoenix, Columbus and Detroit. Hope that Calgary loses.

Teams the Oilers are chasing that play each other at least once

• Predators and Wild
  

Hope that their game on Friday, April 10 does not go into overtime.

Chances for the Oilers to make the Playoffs

Bad. Put still possible. The Oilers may not make it even if they do win their last 3 games. But it is mathematically possible if one if Anaheim, St. Louis, Minnesota, or Nashville loses 2 games or more, and without going into overtime, coupled with 3 straight Oiler wins.

If the Oilers miss the playoffs, they will think back on the 3-2 and 3-0 shutout losses to the Wild and Anaheim's most recent 5-3 win as games that should've been won - because these are the same teams the Oilers are chasing now.