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Saturday, May 16, 2009

Armchair GM'ing for the summer.

Montgomery Burns always had a plan, a plan that often felt impervious to disaster yet somehow failed, often due to Homer J. Simpson. I have a plan, and like Mr. Burns and his plans, think it's an awesome plan. I highly doubt Tambo executes a plan at all close to mine, but I believe certain aspects will be similar. Like Tambo said at seasons end his goal was to get bigger and stronger, I share his philosophy in that regard.

First we need to look at what we have. I will only look at roster players as key components and will have them as the basis of the plans. I will also assume the cap stays at 56 million for this upcoming season.

Forwards
Player Cap Hit
Penner, Dustin 4.25
Hemsky, Ales 4.1
Horcoff, Shawn 5.5
Pisani, Fernando 2.5
Moreau, Ethan 2
Nilsson, Robert 2
Gagner, Sam 1.625
Cogliano, Andrew 1.133
Pouliot, Marc 0.825
Stortini, Zach 0.7
O'Sullivan, Patrick 2.925
MacIntyre, Steve 0.537
Jacques, Jean-Francois 0.525
Kotalik, Ales UFA
Brodziak, Kyle RFA
Reddox, Liam
RFA

Defencemen
Visnovsky, Lubomir 5.6
Souray, Sheldon 5.4
Gilbert, Tom 4
Staios, Steve 2.7
Grebeshkov, Denis RFA
Smid, Ladislav RFA
Strudwick, Jason UFA
Peckham, Theo 0.6

Goaltending
Roloson, Dwayne UFA
Deslauriers, Jeff 0.625

Right now everything for next season comes to 47.545M for next season (28.62-F, 18.3-D, 0.625-G). This leaves us with 8.455M for next season.

Right now as it is, we have a couple of assets that could open us up on the trade market. We arguably have 7 top 6 players signed for next season, in Penner, Horcoff, Hemsky, Nilsson, Gagner, Cogliano, O'Sullivan. I think that Nilsson, Cogliano and O'Sullivan are all tradeable. Penner and Horcoff won't be traded because no other team will accept those contracts. Hemsky won't be traded unless we get someone better back which is highly unlikely. Gagner I believe is the future of this team, therefore also won't be traded, which leaves the 3 guys I mentioned.

On D, I think the only tradable asset we have is Tom Gilbert. Visnovsky and Souray both have NMC's. Grebeshkov and Smid are RFA's and Staois wouldn't fetch too much on the market.

First of all, I would resign Grebeshkov to a contract that has him at a caphit of 3.5M. I will also resign Smid to a 1.5M contract. Reddox also gets the 1M extension. I don't resign Brodziak.

First of all, I would offer Tampa Bay Penner and a 2nd for Malone. Penner and Malone have similar offensive numbers and the exact same cap hit, however Malone brings more heart and grit to the game. He's finishes his checks and gives noticably more effort than Penner. We add the 2nd to get Tampa to bite.

Next, during Free Agency we sign Marty Reasoner to a 1M caphit contract. He's the essential 3rd line center we need as Brodziak obviously wasn't able to fill that void. Reasoner also is more capable at killing PK's and defensive zone faceoffs. This would relieve pressure off of Horcoff allowing him to focus on his offensive game moreso.

Next we see if Staios and Nilsson packaged together get any type of draft picks coming back or prospects coming back. We do it. With the void Staios leaves, we sign Greg Zanon to a 2M contract.

Next we look at Gilbert, Cogliano and O'Sullivan. We could trade Gilbert to Buffalo for the rights to Drew Stafford assuming he signs long term with the Oilers. Stafford adds that grit to our top 6 along with Malone. I would assume Stafford will get a new contract in the range of 3.5M.

Now we try to also clear out Pouliots contract. Take whatever you can for the guy as he has close to no future with the Oilers.

Next we solve our goaltending issue. Theres 3 options that I believe are available for the Oilers.
1)Acquiring Jaroslav Halak via trade
2)Acquiring Jonas Gustavsson via nice contract
3)Acquring Josh Harding via offer sheet

All these scenarios have the goalie making money up to 3M. I would move Deslauriers in all scenarios and sign Roloson to a contract in the 2-3M range. I think Halak and Harding are more realistic from an Oilers perspective as Gustavsson will most likely end up in a more conisistent powerhouse franchise. If we say offer Harding 2.5-3M as I don't see how Minnesota would match when they are paying Backstrom 6M. To pay up to 9M on goaltending is most likely not in the plans for Minnesota. So let's just say we sign another goalie to 3M.

Next can either unfold in 2 ways.

1) We can offer Cogliano and O'Sullivan to San Jose for Milan Michalek. Also even though Souray has a NTC, if I were Tambo I would ask him if he would waive it for San Jose. San Jose will have to fill the void that Rob Blake leaves next season. Souray would be a valid option and I don't see how he would decline waiving his NTC when his family all lives in LA. If we do move Souray we offer Mike Komisarek 4.5M. Also if we trade Souray to San Jose for Michalek, I would move Cogliano, O'Sullivan and our 10th to move up in the draft.

2) Offer Cogliano, O'Sullivan and our 10th Pick to move up as far as we can in the draft. Then see if Jagr is willing sign here for 5M.

Option 1

Michalek-Horcoff-Hemsky
Malone-Gagner-Stafford
Moreau-Reasoner-Pisani
Reddox-Jacques-Stortini

Grebeshkov-Visnovsky
Komisarek-Smid
Zanon-Peckham

Harding
Roloson

Option 2
Jagr-Horcoff-Hemsky

Grebeshkov-Visnovsky
Smid-Souray
Zanon-Peckham

Roloson
Harding

Both options are somewhat plausible and fit under the cap assuming Jagr signs relative cheap in Option 2 (5M). We get alot bigger and tougher in both scenarios as well. The Malone-Gagner-Stafford line is relatively young and would be able to step in to being the #1 line in the future.
Option 1 will give us 1.3M in space and Option 2 will give us 0.5M in space. To keep in mind the future, I would only resign Roloson to a 1 year contract and have his caphit go to whatever Gagner's extension would require.

Both options give Hemsky another Czech linemate. I've personally been waiting for Hemsky to have that breakout season, I think both options give him that ability.

Our 3rd line of Moreau-Reasoner-Pisani would be the essential shutdown line. Where our 4th line of Reddox-Jacques-Stortini would be our energy line. As with both options I've somewhat set up a 1a-1b line system so they can eat equal minutes. This would keep our 4th line to less than 10 minutes a game, where the other 3 lines can eat up the other 50 easily.

Our D core gets better in both scenarios as well. Although it inhinges on Peckham continuing to progress at the rate he was. Near the end of last season he was much improved as compared to his first couple of games. Zanon is a improvement over Staois as well.

As for Goaltending, it's still questionable, however most likely we acquire a goaltender with him in mind for the future. Roloson is still a good goalie, however for as many games he can steal, he can also lose for that one bad goal.

Anyways thats my plan.

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10 Comments:

Blogger raventalon40 said...

I'm warming up to the Malone idea but still think the Halak idea is a bad one.

And "Reddox-Jacques-Stortini" ? Nobody on that line can win a faceoff, how are they supposed to hem the opposition in their zone without possession?

Milan Michalek? He's an offensive force but he's no physical upgrade on wing.

You also spelled Staios and San Jose wrong.

May 17, 2009 at 7:58 AM

 
Blogger raventalon40 said...

I do like Harding and Zanon, though. I would like to add Rob Neidermeyer for the Strudwick connection.

May 17, 2009 at 8:10 AM

 
Blogger thickoil said...

Jacques-Brodziak-Stortini would be the other 4th line, however Brodziak probably doesn't want to stay around for that role. He could probably get 20 goals with the right linemates.

As for Michalek
Height: 6'2
Weight: 225 lbs.

Pros
Owns excellent size and strength. Is polished at both ends of the ice. Can be used in any game situation and is fairly low maintenance.

Cons
His gung-ho style of play can lead to injuries. Is somewhat streaky and can go into prolonged dry spells in the scoring department.

Potential
Fleet scoring winger.

Sounds good to me. Big body and skill. Looks like an upgrade on Penner as well.

May 17, 2009 at 10:12 AM

 
Blogger raventalon40 said...

Michalek-Horcoff-Hemsky
Malone-Gagner-Stafford
Jacques-Neidermeyer-Brodziak
Reddox-Reasoner-Stortini
Spurgeon
MacIntyre
Stone
Potulny
Etc.

Trade Moreau and Pisani

May 17, 2009 at 2:44 PM

 
Blogger thickoil said...

That's a worse team^^^. Jacques has no right being on the 3rd line, and Brodziak as a winger is questionable. Pisani is our best PK'er as well.

I'd much rather
Michalek-Horcoff-Hemsky
Malone-Gagner-Stafford
Moreau-Reasoner-Pisani
Jacques-Brodziak-Stortini

The problem with Neidermeyer is he's a UFA and most likely we'll need to overpay to get him here, and that's if he wants to play on a perennial bubble team. The only play I could see signing here in the summer would be a RFA/UFA picked up via trade, Jagr or Reasoner. Anything else would be to inflated contract due to the fishbowl city status.

May 17, 2009 at 11:09 PM

 
Blogger raventalon40 said...

I'd rather overpay Neidermeyer than Jagr. Brodziak can play on wing it doesn't matter because he'd have better checking linemates. Cogliano has been playing wing extensively. So did Pahlsson when he was in Anaheim and a bunch of Detroit Red Wings. It's easier for C's to switch to Winger than for Wingers to switch to C. Also, if Reddox can play on the 1st line, Jacques can play on the 3rd. Pisani is an aging veteran who is useful but is due for a contract extension in a year and along with Ethan Moreau represent the "old guard" of the team who need to be completely flushed out. I'd rather groom new checking forwards or sign other veterans who make less than what Pisani makes or will make.

May 18, 2009 at 1:02 PM

 
Blogger raventalon40 said...

Sedin-Sedin-Gagner
Stone-Horcoff-Hemsky
Pahlsson-Neidermeyer-Brodziak
Reddox-Reasoner-Stortini

Spurgeon
Reddox
MacIntyre
Potulny
McDonald
Etc.

Brodziak can ride shotgun

Visnovsky - Grebs
Komisarek - Peckham
Zanon - Hnidy

Strudwick

Harding
DesLauriers


Trade Penner, Nilsson, Cogliano, O'Sullivan, Moreau, Pisani, Gilbert, Staios and Souray

May 18, 2009 at 5:33 PM

 
Blogger raventalon40 said...

Talent Analysis (Hockey's Future)

Stone’s offensive contributions were matched by his work on the other side of the puck, with solid forechecking and good work in his own zone. Stone also plays with a level of toughness that goes beyond his 6’1, 200-pound frame, and is happy to drop the gloves if the situation warrants.Sounds like a good Glencross type.

May 18, 2009 at 5:37 PM

 
Blogger thickoil said...

Hemsky would demand a trade if he had to play with another "fringe" player.

And I highly doubt the Sedins would want to sign here. I believe the Oilers best chance at acquiring talent is through trading/drafting. High end free agents forwards haven't signed here for like forever. Sure we get the rights to a player, yada yada. But really when was the last time we got a major forward during free agency and even more, that we didn't overpay that player.

May 20, 2009 at 12:03 AM

 
Blogger raventalon40 said...

Not very often, but that could also be attributed to the same organizational weakness that got us into this mess in the first place. Simply put, if there is no confidence left in the old administration, I believe Tambellini starts with a clean slate.

May 20, 2009 at 11:18 PM

 

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