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Thursday, July 9, 2009

Players to Sign / Players to Avoid

Two Players to Avoid

1. Derek Morris
  • BTN (+/-) rating of -14 based on GFON of 35 and GAON of 49
  • BTN reports Morris as having a -8.2 Corsi number
  • NHL (+/-) rating of -10 and 7 out of his 20 points were attained on special teams, accounting for 35% of his total offense
For someone who is touted as an offensive defenseman, this guy is a defensive and offensive black hole by any statistical measure. His Corsi number would be understandable if he was a defensive defenseman, but his Corsi is even lower than Rob Scuderi (-7.9), whose main job is not to rush the puck but rather to get rid of it as quickly as he can.

Basically, Morris is a pretty bad choice as an offensive defenseman. And if the numbers are any indication, he wouldn't be a very good defensive defenseman either.

2. Niclas Havelid
  • BTN stats are pretty much on par with Steve Staios with nearly identical Corsi, (+/-), GFON and GAON, and for TOI/60
  • They are about the same age
  • Havelid had better QUALTEAM than Staios (yes, we mean Strudwick)
Havelid makes more money than Staios for doing pretty much the same job and we all love Steady Steve but Grebs is just one of the D-men on this team running laps around him. Adding Havelid would be a mistake.

Two Players to Sign

1. Alex Tanguay
  • 50 GP, 16-25-41 with 24 PIM
  • 2008-09 Salary of about 5.4 million
  • Corsi of -8.5 and a BTN (+/-) of +10
  • NHL (+/-) of +13
  • Condition: He has to take a pay cut over a term shorter than 4 years (perhaps a 2 year deal)
After a season like the one he just had, I think Tanguay would be willing to take a pay cut to stay in the NHL. He's still relatively young (29 yrs old) and has a few years of his best productivity ahead of him. Any deal shy of 4 years (perhaps a 2 year deal) could still yield great results out of Tanguay. However, it would require Tanguay to make Penner-like money to make it even close to financially feasible, along with the Oilers losing a few big ticket contracts (cough Souray, cough Nilsson).

One thing that stands out to me is that Tanguay is positive in all (+/-) departments despite being outshot so badly while on the ice. QUALCOMP and QUALTEAM don't really shed much light on this tidbit and hopefully a Montreal Canadiens fan could help me out on this front.

2. Christian Backman
  • 2008-09 Salary of about 3.4 million
  • Size and strength to clear away opposing forwards from the front of the net
  • BTN stats indicate he has a Corsi of 13.8 and a BTN (+/-) of +6, which puts him in good company, though he lacks the offense of others in this category, such as Brian Campbell (52 points) and Dan Boyle (57 points), it would seem he's doing something right by perhaps keeping the puck in the zone or getting a lot of shots through to the net from the point; one thing's for certain, he manages to keep the puck out of his zone for most of the time he's on the ice
  • Condition: Steve Staios has to go
Backman makes less than Souray but more than Staios; in all honesty, I would rather him than Staios though, because he would make a good complement to an offensive juggernaut, perhaps Souray or perhaps Visnovsky. Experience gives Backman the advantage over Smid, who has loads of potential but isn't quite "there" yet.

The question is though, is Backman really worth 700 k more than Steve Staios? I think so. At his age and his given abilities, he could be a good replacement for Steady Steve at about 700 k more.

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Blogger thickoil said...

I'll cry if we get Tanguay. Like he's a good player and all, but he does not make us a better team. Also he's a pass first shoot later type of person. Who the hell is gonna shoot on our team? Horcoff? lol. Is Eberle making the team this year? He is the only shoot first player in our system. Actually O'Sullivan is also a shoot first type of guy (259 Shots, good for 21 in the league, 1 more than Heatley as well in 1 less game). The only difference is his S% is like 6%, vs. Heatleys 15%.

July 11, 2009 at 11:36 PM


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