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Monday, June 22, 2009

Mission Impossible

Due to the cap going down to 55, and the highly rumored chances of the Oilers getting Jay Bouwmeester and/or Dany Heatley. I've been wondering if it's plausible at all to get under our cap. Since the forecasters have predicted a 55M ceiling, that's what I'm going to target.

Deal 1:
Dany Heatley

Although some may scoff at Penner heading the other way, Murray did bring him up in Anaheim and has that connection. Ottawa is also in a situation, that they will most likely get some for of cap dump back. Even if the Oilers don't do the deal for Heatley, I see Ottawa getting a Top 6 forward with mediocore to bad contract, a younger offensive high potential d-man, and a combination of A+prospects/draft picks.

Deal 2:
Jay Bouwmeesters rights.


Sign Jay Bouwmeester for 10 years/65M (6.5 Cap hit)

Florida most likely does this instantly. It may not be the best trade from the Oilers perspective, but it allows us to get negotiating rights for a player that actually wants to play here.

So far I've moved, out 4.25+4+5.4=13.65 and brought in 6.5+7.5=14 which is only a 0.35 cap increase.

Next we resign Grebeshkov for 3 years/10M for a 3.33 hit. (Rumored to be a 3 year@9.75 deal atm)

We resign, Smid to a 3 year/5M for a 1.67 hit
We resign Brodziak to a 3 year/5M for a 1.67 hit
Sign Zanon to a 3 year/6M for a 2 hit.
Sign Betts to a 2 year/2.5M fora 1.25 hit.
Offer Nilsson+Staois elsewheres for picks/prospects
OS Harding for a 3.25 hit.




For a total hit of 54.058 according to my excel spreadsheet. The best part is that Pisani and Moreaus contracts are up soon and most likely won't resign at the inflated prices they were at. This would give us more cap room for the Gagner extension. Our bottom 2 on D could also be questionable, and if people prefer Staois, you could move O'Sullivan and keep Nilsson around in order to keep Staois.

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Blogger raventalon40 said...

You're overpaying in all of your trades.

1. Don't give up the 10th. In these cases teams usually trade conditional 1st round picks from later years (2010, 2011) that are dependent on the performance of the player acquired (Heatley).

2. Gilbert for Bouwmeester rights? That's an insanely bad deal. We'd have to get a pick or a prospect out of that deal. Steve Tambellini is certainly not as free wheeling with his assets as Bob Gainey and that's the way it should stay.

I realize that for Bouwmeester to be an Oiler, you need to dump salary as he is sure to make at least in the 5.5 - 7 million range (most likely 6.5?) but it's not like the old CBA where you get compensated for guys not signing between the end of playoffs and July 1st (see Brian Leetch, Edmonton Oilers). It's not worth it but if we were able to dump Gilbert's salary in exchange for a legitimate goaltender and then trade high-level prospects (see Todd Bertuzzi, Shawn Matthias) perhaps in an exchange for Rob Schremp, Linus Omark, or others.

Seeing as J-Bo is much higher touted than Bertuzzi, it may require a sweeter to get done, but it will take way less than Gilbert to get done.

June 22, 2009 at 2:58 PM

Blogger raventalon40 said...

*sweetener, not sweeter

June 22, 2009 at 2:59 PM

Blogger thickoil said...

Yeah I know that was a overpayment, but really I could care less if we get Jbo for a nice long contract.

Bryan Murray said he would like a top 10 Draft pick coming back. Its very likely our 1st and next years first as a conditional. Something along the lines Pronger got us.(Although we still got gypped)

Or for the JBo deal, we could ask for the 14th overall back as well. That would allow us to draft Kassian :)

June 22, 2009 at 6:31 PM

Blogger raventalon40 said...

Normally I would agree with you, but every source I've checked agrees that the Ottawa camp has been forced into a corner and that their return will be markedly lower than other players where the trade request wasn't leaked out. A la Olli Jokinen.

The only way I endorse overpayment is that we have guarantee that he will resign long term and that we can reduce our salary all at once while doing it.

June 22, 2009 at 8:53 PM


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