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Thursday, June 18, 2009

Potential Lineups... Because I'm Bored



This is Joe Pavelski.

He scored 24-34-59 in 80 GP with 717 faceoffs won and 557 faceoffs lost, for a FO% of 56.3. More on Joe later.

For each of the listed players, the first number is the current cap hit of the player as calculated by entire contract divided by length of term by the team that signed them and/or at the time of acquisition. The second number is the remaining contract to be paid over the remaining term starting in the 2009-10 season.

WARNING:

Feel free to chip in for/against my proposals but do NOT take any of them seriously. I'm just trying to shoot the shit (pardon my French) for this upcoming off season of major change.

Oilers Players on the Block (Rumoured)


Sheldon Souray - 5.400 (EDM) / 4.833
Dustin Penner - 4.250 (EDM) / 4.250
Tom Gilbert - 4.000 (EDM) / 4.100
Patrick O'Sullivan - 2.925 (EDM) / 2.388
Steve Staios - 2.700 (EDM) / 2.500
Robert Nilsson - 2.000 (EDM) / 2.250
Ethan Moreau - 2.000 (EDM) / 1.750
Andrew Cogliano - 1.133 (EDM) / 1.133

LW Players on the Market (Rumoured)

Dany Heatley - 7.500 (OTT) / 7.000*
Marco Sturm - 3.500 (BOS) / 3.500
Alexander Frolov - 2.900 (LAK) / 4.000
Wojtek Wolski - 2.800 (COL) / 3.100

For reference:
Daniel/Henrik Sedin - 6.083 (VAN) 6.083 link
Joe Pavelski - 1.637 (SJS) / 1.725**

* He has a 4 million signing bonus due July 1.
** Joe Pavelski is not actually on the block. He is here for reference only. I would love to acquire him for the Oilers, though.

Statistics

Dany Heatley, LW
82 GP, 39-33-72, 88 PIM

Marco Sturm, LW
19 GP, 7-6-13, 8 PIM

Alexander Frolov, LW
77 GP, 32-27-59, 30 PIM

Wojtek Wolski, LW
78 GP, 14-28-42, 28 PIM

Oilers Organizational Needs
  • Goaltending
  • Size
  • Scoring
  • Defensive Depth @ Cheaper Rates
Firstly, I want to say I was surprised that Heatley would cost us less than previously thought, though the discount is only 500k per year, if the signing bonus can be avoided.

Secondly, I was surprised to find that signing one of the Sedins would be cheaper than signing Heatley. That being said, you have to sign both the Sedins if you're gonna sign them at all.

Thirdly, I put size before scoring on the team chart because Edmonton scored a lot of goals this season but couldn't keep them out of the net. This is also why goaltending is higher up the list.

Other potential FA signings on the market, such as Marian Gaborik, will also be sniffing about in the 5.5 - 7.5 M / year range. This is probably where Marian Hossa would fall as well, because even with the season he just had, I think the Red Wings set the precedent for what a player like Hossa is worth. I don't think the Oilers would still offer him 8 M+ / year as they did last summer.

Scenario 1: Heatley/Bouwmeester come to Edmonton
Scenario 2: Sedins come to Edmonton
Scenario 3: Oilers remain as status quo as possible, and add role players as opposed to star players

Scenario 1A

Heatley - Horcoff - Hemsky
Wolski - Pavelski - Gagner
Moreau - Zigomanis - Pisani
Donovan - Brodziak - Stortini
Jacques
Stone
MacIntyre
Reddox

Visnovsky - Grebeshkov
Bouwmeester - Smid
Peckham - Strudwick
Chorney

???
Jeff DesLauriers

Assumptions made:
  • Bouwmeester will make 6 million, MAX
  • Grebeshkov will resign for around 3.2 million, MAX
  • Strudwick will resign for around 500 K
  • Zigomanis will make 1.2 million, MAX
  • Brodziak will resign for 500 K, MAX (truth is, I know he will sign for more)
  • San Jose is willing to part with the cheap scoring forward, Pavelski (probably the biggest assumption I made in the whole thing)
Potential Trades in this Scenario 1A
  • Penner + Gilbert + Omark/Schremp/etc. + 1st in 2010 for Heatley + Donovan
  • Souray + Cogliano for Pavelski + Conditional 1st round pick* + 2nd round pick 2009
  • Staios + O'Sullivan + Pouliot + 10th overall pick (2009) for Wolski + 3rd overall pick (2009)
  • Nilsson for a goaltender?
* This is dependant on how many points Souray and/or Cogliano score. This would be anything from a 1st to a 3rd rounder in 2010.

Total Salary (w/o a goaltender): 49.754 million

Scenario 1B

Heatley - Horcoff - Hemsky
Kotalik - Pavelski - Gagner
Moreau - Malholtra - Pisani
Jacques - Brodziak - Stortini
Stone
MacIntyre
Reddox

Visnovsky - Grebeshkov
Bouwmeester - Smid
Peckham - Strudwick
Chorney

Josh Harding
Jeff DesLauriers

Assumptions made:
  • Bouwmeester will make 6 million, MAX
  • Grebeshkov will resign for around 3.2 million, MAX
  • Kotalik will resign for around 3.2 million, MAX
  • Malholtra will make 2.2 million, MAX
  • Strudwick will resign for around 500 K
  • Harding will make 1.5 million, MAX
  • Brodziak will resign for 500 K, MAX (truth is, I know he will sign for more)
Potential Trades in this Scenario 1A
  • Penner + Gilbert + Staios + Omark/Schremp/etc. + 1st in 2010 for Heatley + 1st round pick 2010
  • Souray + Cogliano for Pavelski + Conditional 1st round pick* + 2nd round pick 2009
  • O'Sullivan + Pouliot for Josh Harding
  • Nilsson for Bouwmeester signing rights
Total Salary (w/Harding): 54.154 million

Scenario 2A

Frolov - Horcoff - Hemsky
Sedin - Sedin - Gagner
Reddox - Brodziak - Pisani
Jacques - Stone - Stortini
MacIntyre

Visnovsky - Grebeshkov
Souray - Smid
Peckham - Staios
Strudwick

Kari Lehtonen
Jeff DesLauriers

Assumptions made:
  • Sedins sign for 6.1 million, MAX
  • Lehtonen will sign for 3.5 million, MAX
  • Grebeshkov will resign for around 3.2 million, MAX
  • Smid will resign for around 1.2 million, MAX
  • Strudwick will resign for around 500 K
  • Brodziak will resign for 500 K, MAX (truth is, I know he will sign for more)
Potential Trades in this Scenario 1A
  • Gilbert for Frolov
  • Cogliano + Pouliot for Lehtonen
  • Moreau, O'Sullivan, Nilsson for picks
Total Salary: 56.050 million**
** The big problem in this scenario is a lot of big salaries going into 2010-2011

Scenario 2B

Penner - Horcoff - Hemsky
Sedin - Sedin - Gagner
Moreau - Conroy - Pisani
Jacques - Brodziak - Stortini

Visnovsky - Grebeshkov
Gilbert - Vandermeer
Peckham - Smid
Chorney

Giguere
LaBarbera

Assumptions made:
  • Sedins sign for 6.1 million, MAX
  • Grebeshkov will resign for around 3.2 million, MAX
  • Smid will resign for around 1.2 million, MAX
  • Brodziak will resign for 500 K, MAX (truth is, I know he will sign for more)
Potential Trades in this Scenario 1A
  • Souray + Nilsson + Cogliano for Giguere + 1st and 2nd round picks 2010
  • O'Sullivan for Conroy + Vandermeer
  • Pouliot for picks
Total Salary: About 56 million (no room for injuries, though!)

Scenario 3A

Penner - Horcoff - Hemsky
Cogliano - Staal - Gagner***
O'Sullivan - Brodziak - Pisani
Jacques - Zigomanis - Stortini
Stone
Reddox

Visnovsky - Grebeshkov
Gilbert - Smid
Peckham - Staios
Chorney

Bryzgalov
DesLauriers

*** I am aware that this is a line of all centers

Assumptions made:
  • Grebeshkov will resign for around 3.2 million, MAX
  • Smid will resign for around 1.2 million, MAX
  • Brodziak will resign for 500 K, MAX (truth is, I know he will sign for more)
  • Zigomanis will make 1.2 million, MAX
  • Phoenix is willing to trade #1 goalie Ilya Bryzgalov (which is highly unlikely)
Potential Trades in this Scenario 1A
  • Souray + Omark/Schremp/etc. + 2nd round pick 2010 for Staal (Jordan) + prospect
  • Nilsson + Moreau for Bryzgalov + picks
  • Pouliot for picks
Total Salary: About 53 million (no room for injuries, though!)

Other potential acquisitions of interest:
  • Karlis Skrastins (the former NHL ironman shotblocker)
  • Blair Betts
  • Greg Zanon
  • Nik Antropov (the Pat Quinn connection?)
  • Brandom Dubinsky
  • Johnny Oduya
  • Jordan Leopold
  • Steve Eminger
  • Jassen Cullimore
  • Tom Kostopoulos
  • Saku Koivu
  • Mikael Samuelsson

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