Cheap Role Players (cont'd): RFA List 2009

The Oilers will probably try to find cheap role players to fill holes this season by more than just the UFA route. One such alternative is trading for RFA's or making offer sheets. Though the latter approach is more risky considering the compensation involved (see Penner) and less likely to be successful (see Backes), one can always acquire them and resign them afterwards (see Lupul).

I was going over this season's RFA list and found the following RFA's of interest:

Erik Christensen, C/LW
2008-09 Salary: $750,000

Kari Lehtonen, G
2008-09 Salary: $3,000,000

Colby Armstrong, RW
2008-09 Salary: $1,200,000

Matt Hunwick, D *1
2008-09 Salary: $775,000

Martin St. Pierre, C *2
2008-09 Salary: $500,000

Drew Stafford, RW *3
2008-09 Salary: $984,000

Cam Barker, D
2008-09 Salary: $984,200

Ben Eager, LW
2008-09 Salary: $650,000

Kris Versteeg, RW
2008-09 Salary: $490,000

Olle-Kristian Tollefsen, D *4
2008-09 Salary: $750,000

Jason Bacashihua, G
2008-09 Salary: $708,092

Kyle Cumiskey, D
2008-09 Salary: $475,000

Mark Fistric, D
2008-09 Salary: $650,000

Jiri Hudler, F *5
2008-09 Salary: $1,150,000

Ville Leino, LW
2008-09 Salary: $875,000

Steve Eminger, D
2008-09 Salary: $1,200,000

David Booth, LW
2008-09 Salary: $675,000

Dan Fritsche, C
2008-09 Salary: $875,000

Benoit Pouliot, C
2008-09 Salary: $850,000

Josh Harding, G
2008-09 Salary: $750,000

Christopher Higgins, C
2008-09 Salary: $1,900,000

Tomas Plekanec, C/LW
2008-09 Salary: $1,800,000

Kyle Chipchura, C/RW *6
2008-09 Salary: $860,000

Matt D'Agostini, RW
2008-09 Salary: $508,000

Travis Zajac, C/RW
2008-09 Salary: $984,200

Blake Comeau, RW *7
2008-09 Salary: $735,000

Sergei Ogorodnikov, C *8
2008-09 Salary: $600,000

Brandon Dubinsky, C
2008-09 Salary: $635,000

Scottie Upshall, LW
2008-09 Salary: $1,250,000

Enver Lisin, RW *9
2008-09 Salary: $850,000

Marcel Goc, C
2008-09 Salary: $775,000

Thomas Greiss, G
2008-09 Salary: $725,000

Tomas Plihal, LW *10
2008-09 Salary: $500,000

Jeff Woywitka, D *11
2008-09 Salary: $725,000

Roman Polak, D *12
2008-09 Salary: $475,000

Matt Lashoff, D *13
2008-09 Salary: $685,000

Jannick Hansen, RW
2008-09 Salary: $500,000

Eric Fehr, RW *14
2008-09 Salary: $735,000

1. Matt Hunwick - a player that was rumoured to Edmonton at the recent trade deadline
2. Martin St. Pierre - Guy Flaming talks about this player as a potential pickup as a seasoned veteran offensive player for the farm in Springfield
3. Drew Stafford - thickoil loves this guy. Great player, bound to get a raise this off season.
4. Olle-Kristian Tollefsen - big guy does it all: block shots, fight, play hard
5. Jiri Hudler - this guy was almost an Oiler when Frank Musil recommended him to the Edmonton scouting staff; Detroit snapped him up first
6. Kyle Chipchura - my favourite on this list; team captain of his WJC team and team captain of the Hamilton Bulldogs who won the Calder Cup in 2007
   
7. Blake Comeau - he was the linemate of Tyler Spurgeon and Troy Bodie for the "Network Line," and he would make a great Springfield addition
8. Sergei Ogorodnikov - there has been talk that S.O. was having adjusting to the North American game in terms of an offensive game but you can't deny the leadership factor that e brings, and he could be a solid farm player in the mold of a Kytnar or Pisani (and a cheap replacement for that bum O'Marra)
9. Enver Lisin - another speedy skilled forward in the mold of Ville Leino and Jani Rita: the catch is this guy doesn't want to play in the AHL and that's really where he belongs at this point
10. Tomas Plihal - this checking forward has decent hands and is a cheap plugger
11. Jeff Woywitka - journeyman defenseman who is no stranger to Edmonton
    
12. Roman Polak - some think this guy is ready to play a top-4 role as a shut-down D-man opposite a good-to-medium offensively skilled D-man
13. Matt Lashoff - another D-man who was rumoured to Edmonton at the last trade deadline
14. Eric Fehr - the Oilers wanted to draft this guy but Washington got him; the Oilers have a history of acquiring guys they missed out on drafting (Nilsson, Pitkanen, etc.) and I wouldn't be surprised if they did it again with Fehr because this is one good hockey player; more on Eric Fehr here
    

If I had to pick one, just one RFA out of the entire list, it'd have to be Drew Stafford. The only problem is I doubt that Buffalo lets this guy get away and so realistically speaking, I think a guy like Chipchura, Polak, or Fehr would benefit the Oilers.

On the goaltending front, Lehtonen and Bacashihua seem to be the only goalies that have any NHL experience worth mentoining, though both have been known to be injury-prone.

Cheap Role Players and the 55 Million Challenge

The Challenge: Forge a competitive NHL team with 55 million or less

I was thinking back to Lowetide's blog post on cap bargain players and that got me thinking about how the Oilers could potentially still compete as a team though they will very likely be picking a very high priced player this off-season.

Let's be honest with ourselves: Katz failed to sign Hossa last year and with the loss of Reasoner and Glencross, I'm sure he won't let the next big ticket get away. It's almost guaranteed that Katz will make sure one of Heatley, Gaborik, or Hossa will be Tambellini's next successful acquisition via trade or free agent signing. Even if it's not one of those three, something big will happen. He's opened the books to the coaches when he signed Quinn and Renney. Here come the player pay cheques too!

But Oilers admin, Oilers fan, and the Oilogosphere alike are well aware of the cheap contracts the Oilers had during the o5-06 cup run and how they are necessary to have more talent than is proportional to the salary being paid. It is interesting that despite the way the last two seasons ended (just out of the playoffs but on different terms) it would seem that the window of opportunity just opened up again.

This is not the first Armchair GM/Potential Scenario kind of shindig that I've thrown together in the last few weeks but the main focus for this scenario is the acquisition of cheap role players and bonafide NHL talent at reasonable prices.

The Lineup (Summary)

LW Heatley C Horcoff RW Hemsky
LW Cogliano C Pavelski RW Gagner
LW Moreau C UFA Center RW Pisani
LW Jacques C Brodziak RW Stortini
F MacIntyre
F Reddox

D Visnovsky D Grebeshkov
D Ehrhoff D Smith
D Gorges D Peckham
D Zanon
D Ole-Kristian Tollefsen

G Lehtonen G Harding
G Perugini

Salary: 52.457 million + ????

DETAILS BELOW!

Forwards - 29.757 million + ????

LW Heatley $7.5/7.0
C Horcoff $5.5
RW Hemsky $4.1

LW Cogliano $1.133
C Pavelski $1.637
RW Gagner $1.625

LW Moreau $2.0
C Fiddler/Yelle EST $1.0
RW Pisani $2.5

LW Jacques $0.525
C Brodziak EST $1.0
RW Stortini $0.7

F MacIntyre $0.537
F Reddox ????
F Chipchura ????
F Spurgeon ????
F Stone ????
F Kytnar ????

Though I would like to see Gratton in an Oiler uniform for faceoff purposes alone I also consider the fact that the Oilers passed on him when he was on waivers. So realistically, Vernon Fiddler, Stephane Yelle or Mike Zigomanis are better options. I also wouldn't rule out the chances of one of the farmhands surprising at TC 09-10 considering the Tyler Spurgeon faceoff winning checking center is just the type of player the Oilers are looking for, and would cost less than a Fiddler, Yelle, or Zigomanis, though the latter options would have more veteran experience in the position.

And btw, I would love to see either Stone or Spurgeon in Oiler uniforms this upcoming season. Here's to their showing up to the TC party.

Defense - 17.2 million + ????

D Visnovsky $5.6
D Grebeshkov $3.2

D Ehrhoff$3.3
D Smith $2.6

D Gorges $1.1
D Peckham $0.6

D Zanon EST $0.8
D Ole-Kristian Tollefsen ????

One thing stands out the most to me: Theo Peckham is ready for full time work and I believe he can do the job that Smid or Staios does, and perhaps eventually, do it better.

In this scenario, a Jay Bouwmeester signing doesn't happen on account of too much salary to dump. If Heatley can be acquired without taking back defensive salary, then perhaps a move here and a move there could accomondate the large salary J-Bo is bound to be asking for. The catch: the Oilers can't have 3 big ticket D-men. At least not in my imaginary scenarios where I get to call the shots (LOL!).

Goaltending - 5.5 million + ????

G Lehtonen EST 3.0
G Harding EST 2.5

Combined with Harding, Lehtonen would make a great 1A/1B combination.

G Perugini (I think he warrants this position on the depth chart)

Total Salary - 52.457 million + ????
Verdict: Challenge can be met

Requisite Trades

1. (EDM) Tom Gilbert + Dustin Penner + prospect for (OTT) Dany Heatley + Jason Smith + low draft pick (5th or lower)
   
2. (EDM) Sheldon Souray + prospect + 2nd round pick for (SJS) Pavelski + Ehrhoff
3. (EDM) Marc-Antoine Pouliot + Steve Staios + Ladislav Smid for (MTL) Kyle Chipchura + Josh Gorges + prospect
4. (EDM) Patrick O'Sullivan for (MIN) Josh Harding
5. (EDM) Jeff DesLauriers for (CLB) Olle-Kristian Tollefsen
   
6. (EDM) Robert Nilsson + draft picks or prospects for (ATL) Kari Lehtonen

Trade #1 - Why does Ottawa accept this trade?

• Ottawa is in a corner when it comes to the Heatley trade demands and if they deal a top 6 LW they will need a top 6 LW in return. Seeing as they would be accepting way too much salary, the Oilers would need to pick up some salary, most likely Smith, in return.
• There are a lot of teams out there that need scoring, but I have no doubt that Edmonton and Vancouver are the most desperate right now. The Oilers have better assets to give up.
  

Trade #2 - Why does San Jose accept this trade?

• Firstly, if I was San Jose, I would want to keep Joe Pavelski. However, the loss of Rob Blake means a need for a big D-man who can play both the PP and the PK. Pavelski is due for a pay raise soon and that means one of Marleau or Cheechoo would have to be traded and perhaps San Jose is willing to part with Pavelski instead, with the added incentive of some skilled prospects (Schremp? Omark?) and a high draft pick.
• Sheldon Souray is a slight upgrade on Christian Ehrhoff, who is significantly more expensive than his counterparts Vlasic and Murray. This may mean Ehrhoff is expendable to San Jose.
  

Trade #3 - Why does Montreal accept this trade?

• We all know that Bob Gainey has pretty much nobody on contract into next season. He has a whackload of prospects and RFAs to resign and perhaps he is willing to part with former WJC star and Team Canada captain Kyle Chipchura. Pouliot is on a pretty fair contract and he's got size and speed.
  
• Also, looking at Montreal's D-core one first notices the lack of veteran leadership with the exception of the hardened Hamrlik and the marksmen Markov. The re-acquisition of Jason Smith leaves Steve Staios expendable. Josh Gorges at $1.0 M is not bad for a third pairing offensive defenseman. Sure is cheaper than Marc-Andre Bergeron at $1.6 M.
• First off, I would love to keep Smid. But I have heard rumours of his not wanting to play in Edmonton, let alone on a third pairing. Smid is coming into his own and would probably form part of Montreal's new second pairing (LOL!) of Staios-Smid. Sure beats playing Ryan O'Byrne every night for 25 minutes, I'll tell you that much. And Edmonton gets a decent prospect in return for Smid. Win-win.
  

Trade #4 - Why does Minnesota accept this trade?

• Minnesota loves Patrick O'Sullivan. Edmonton loves Josh Harding. I'm sure we can work things out in terms of the specifics but this seems to me to be a trade made in heaven.
• The teams out east that need goaltending (Philadelphia, Tampa Bay) are not looking like favourable outlets for Harding. I don't think Minnesota will mind trading within the division, since both players involved have played very limited time for their respective teams.
• O'Sullivan would easily be in the top 6 forward bracket for Minnesota.
  

Trade #5 - Why does Columbus accept this trade?

• Well, there's always the Scott Howson factor.
• Steve Mason is on a cheap contract. I'm also sure that Howson is interested in acquiring a veteran backup for the Calder trophy winner Mason, but he would save a lot of money by acquiring cheap backup DesLauriers as opposed to more expensive options such as Khabibulin or Roloson (who would also be applied to the Howson factor). Mason proved this season that he's ready for the starting job.
  
• Olle-Kristian Tollefsen is a pending RFA and this would take one more thing off of Howson's mind. He's a big strong defenseman of the Hal Gill model but perhaps with better passing. He would be a cheap Ladislav Smid replacement (though his skating does not compare) and an upgrade on Jason Strudwick.
  

Trade #6 - Why does Atlanta accept this trade?

• Simply put, Atlanta has not offensive depth. They emptied the vaults for the Keith Tkachuk episode and it hurt them bad.
• Ondrej Pavelec may not necessarily be ready for the big show but I'm sure that if the Oilers offered Robert Nilsson it would be great starting point for discussing a potential trade for Kari Lehtonen.
  

It is also possible that the Oilers keep DesLauriers and trade Cogliano. The Oilers are wary of trading Cogliano, as per every source made available thus far on the internet, but if the right return is available, don't think Tambellini won't make the move.

Shout out to Boys on the Bus, who has a pretty good thing going even though they just started out. Welcome to the Oilogosphere.

With all that math said and done, here is a similar lineup.

A Similar Lineup



LW Heatley C Horcoff RW Hemsky
LW Antropov* C Pavelski RW Gagner
LW Moreau C UFA Center RW Pisani
LW Jacques C Brodziak RW Stortini
F Hudler
F MacIntyre
F Helm

D Visnovsky D Grebeshkov
D Kronwall D Smith
D Gorges D Peckham
D Ole-Kristian Tollefsen
D Chorney

G Gustavsson** G Harding
G Perugini

Salary: Around 54 million, depending on Gustavsson
(this scenario has no Greg Zanon signing)

* Antropov plays both wings
** Gustavsson may have no NHL experience but he's an international sensation I believe he would make a great tandem with Harding

Requisite Trades

1. (EDM) Tom Gilbert + Dustin Penner + prospect for (OTT) Dany Heatley + Jason Smith + low draft pick (5th or lower)
   
2. (EDM) Sheldon Souray + prospect + 2nd round pick for (SJS) Pavelski + Ehrhoff
3. (EDM) Marc-Antoine Pouliot + Steve Staios + Ladislav Smid for (MTL) Kyle Chipchura + Josh Gorges + prospect
4. (EDM) Patrick O'Sullivan for (MIN) Josh Harding
5. (EDM) Jeff DesLauriers for (CLB) Olle-Kristian Tollefsen
   
6. (EDM) Robert Nilsson + draft picks or prospects for (ATL) Kari Lehtonen
7. (EDM) Christian Ehrhoff + Andrew Cogliano + Robert Nilsson for Niklas Kronwall + Jiri Hudler + Darren Helm + low draft picks
   

Trade #7 - Why does Detroit accept this trade?

• One can dream... yeah I know this would put the Red Wings over the cap. This is because Kronwall makes less than Ehrhoff and Nilsson makes way more than Helm. Perhaps the Oilers could swallow some salary for the Red Wings, who knows. Oh yeah, there's also that business about Kronwall being a more complete defenseman than Ehrhoff.
• However, Cogliano played college hockey in Michigan and would probably be a known player to the Red Wings local scouts. Cogliano is arguably just as good as most of the Red Wings young players (Hudler, Helm) and perhaps better than some. Nilsson is a pure salary dump but I'm sure the Red Wings will love his skill.
• Hudler is a pending RFA. Edmonton can take that RFA off their hands considering all the other contracts Detroit has handed out and is yet to hand out this off season. They aren't going to resign Mikael Samuelsson... but do they have enough to resign Hudler after opening the books for Franzen?
• Hudler doesn't fit into this Edmonton lineup right off the bat but he could yield a return if someone tries to sign him to an offer sheet. If not, we could flip him for more assets later on in the off season or regular season.
  

That's it folks.

Pre-Draft Notes & Rumours Discussion

This is David Rundblad taking a slap shot from the point.

More on him later.

Who I want (at 10th overall):

Besides the obvious players who won't be available at the 10th spot (Tavares, Hedman, Kane), here are the players I think realistically will be available and should be Oilers property come time to draft.

When it comes to this year's draft I think it's time for Tambellini to try to draft something that is as close to a low-risk pick as possible: that pretty much means he has to pick a player he knows will be an NHL competitor. Here's the list of players whose bios and descriptions I've read and come across as the best potentially available at 10th overall.

DMITRY KULIKOV, D, Drummondville (QMJHL)
SCOTT GLENNIE, RW, Brandon (WHL)
STEFAN ELLIOT, D, Saskatoon (WHL)
RYAN ELLIS, D, Windsor (OHL)
JACOB Josefson, C, Djurgården (Sweden)
DAVID RUNDBLAD, D, Skelleftea (Sweden)
TIM ERIXON, D, Skelleftea (Sweden)

Kulikov's description reminds me a bit of Niklas Kronwall of the Detroit Red Wings or Zach Bogosian of the Atlanta Thrashers. Strong, skilled, and takes the hit to make the play as well as a great outlet pass. Hopefully he can be our next Boris Mironov - and then some.

As for Glennie, it's been beat to death how he's the prototype strong Western Canadian hockey brainchild and I think he has the makings of a pretty good top 6 forward. He's got the skills and smarts to be a Paul Stastny type though who knows how high the ceiling actually is for him.

When it comes to Ryan Ellis, myself an others (including Dean Millard) are unconvinced that he warrants a 10th overall selection, but he certainly puts some of the other NHL prospects to shame in terms of his pure skill, smarts, and point shot alone. Not that Ellis projects to be a bad NHL player by any merit, mind you. His comparables, Letang, Rafalski, Russell, are all good defenseman. But is he the best player at 10th? He certainly is a 1st round pick in this year's draft, though - because that is the consensus and that's why we have the CSS. A bigger version of Ryan Ellis would be Stefan Elliot.

As for the rest of the D-men I've listed, I think you can never draft too many smart hockey players (especially smart defensemen) and each of the last 4 players are likened and have specifically noted that they pattern their games after the likes of Zetterberg, Lidström, and Crosby. Though patterning your game after someone doesn't necessarily mean anything, the scouting reports show that at least these 4 players have had some success at picking up those skills. And that is why I like Elliot, Rundbald, and Erixon: they sound more ready to pick up a NHL style of game and already have a puck possesion mentality. On another note, Rundblad and Elliot are noted as having big point shots.

Who I don't want (at 10th overall):

When it comes to these players, I still think they are great prospects but don't believe they warrant a 10th overall selection. I believe these players to be middle first (15th overall) to early 2nd round (40th overall) type of players. These are still really skilled, but aren't necessarily the type of players the Oilers need right now.

OLIVER Ekman Larsson, D, Skelleftea (Sweden-2)
ZACH KASSIAN, RW, Peterborough (OHL)
NAZEM KADRI, C, London (OHL)

Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a great hockey player in his own right and has been compared to Lidström as well. But it doesn't say anywhere about his determination to improve as a hockey player the way it does for Erixon or Josefson. Also, Ekman-Larsson plays in a lower tier and won't be ready for NHL hockey (let alone full time NHL minutes) for a long time. Most NHL D-men are long term projects but I expect Ekman-Larsson to be a extended project in himself. He has the skills - but can he adjust to North American hockey? Will he play in the AHL?

I still love Zach Kassian and think he will be a great NHL player, but I'm on the fence about whether he'll become a Travis Zajac type or a Brad Isbister type.

As for Nazem Kadri, I think that Rob Schremp is a good comparable and had/has better upside than Kadri. Kadri has more size but does he have more pluck than Schremp? Kadri has a reputation of not using his team mates nor presenting any form of backcheck or forecheck. Certainly, this is just a reputation.



Rumours Discussion

It has come to my attention that the Oilers are interested in signing Nik Antropov as a Dustin Penner replacement. This has certain implications:

• Nik Antropov is estimated to make less than Dustin Penner's 4.250 million
  
• This would spell the reunification of Pat Quinn and Antropov
  
• Antropov is a RW, Penner is a LW; this means one of O'Sullivan or Nilsson will likely keep their job, unless Cogliano is capable of switching wings; thus far Cogliano has played C/RW
• This may be confirmation that Penner may be in play for Dany Heatley
• If Antropov is signed, Gaborik is likely not an option (because Antropov is UFA, but Penner/Heatley are both signed to contracts and must be acquired/dumped via trade)
  

Would Antropov actually be an improvement? The same knocks on Dustin Penner (desire, pluck, consistency) are commonly cited for Antropov as well. However, Antropov is coming out of a hockey hotbed that is actually more critical of their players than Edmonton is and one has to wonder if Antropov is actually as bad as a lot of fans make him out to be. He was one of New York's better players after the deadline. That doesn't say much about Scott Gomez or Chris Drury, I'll tell you that much.

The one thing that Antropov has you can't teach and that's size. He's got a ton of skill that he doesn't use often and I wonder if he's an upgrade on another Oiler castoff: Ales Kotalik?!!!!

I think the Oilers would also save a ton of money by resigning Kotalik but would we be a better team for it?

Here's what the Oilers forward lineup would look like in such a circumstance:

Kotalik-Horcoff-Hemsky
Cogliano-Gagner-Antropov
Moreau-UFA Center-Pisani
Jacques-Brodziak-Stortini
Reddox
Smac

There would be plenty of salary to dump but lots left over to sign/acquire a goaltender. This lineup would have plenty of size and skill to go around, but a lot of question marks in the consistency dept. (see Kotalik, Antropov).

Considering a potential Heatley acquisition, the picture gets more twisted:

Heatley-Horcoff-Hemsky
Cogliano-Gagner-Antropov
Moreau-UFA Center-Pisani
Jacques-Brodziak-Stortini
Reddox
Smac

Brodziak could potentially move up and fill the 3rd line center role but it would be a better idea to get a seasoned veteran to play that role. Perhaps Malholtra, Gratton, or Fiddler. How much would such UFA Centers command on the open market?

Such a lineup above would be highly skilled but a bit strapped for cash.

I'm all for acquiring Heatley but also recognize that filling out the rest of the top 6 with cheap but effective contracts will be a very tough and trying task for Tambellini.

Mission Impossible

Due to the cap going down to 55, and the highly rumored chances of the Oilers getting Jay Bouwmeester and/or Dany Heatley. I've been wondering if it's plausible at all to get under our cap. Since the forecasters have predicted a 55M ceiling, that's what I'm going to target.

Deal 1:
Penner+Gilbert/Souray+10th
for
Dany Heatley

Although some may scoff at Penner heading the other way, Murray did bring him up in Anaheim and has that connection. Ottawa is also in a situation, that they will most likely get some for of cap dump back. Even if the Oilers don't do the deal for Heatley, I see Ottawa getting a Top 6 forward with mediocore to bad contract, a younger offensive high potential d-man, and a combination of A+prospects/draft picks.

Deal 2:
Gilbert/Souray
for
Jay Bouwmeesters rights.

then

Sign Jay Bouwmeester for 10 years/65M (6.5 Cap hit)

Florida most likely does this instantly. It may not be the best trade from the Oilers perspective, but it allows us to get negotiating rights for a player that actually wants to play here.

So far I've moved, out 4.25+4+5.4=13.65 and brought in 6.5+7.5=14 which is only a 0.35 cap increase.

Next we resign Grebeshkov for 3 years/10M for a 3.33 hit. (Rumored to be a 3 year@9.75 deal atm)

We resign, Smid to a 3 year/5M for a 1.67 hit
We resign Brodziak to a 3 year/5M for a 1.67 hit
Sign Zanon to a 3 year/6M for a 2 hit.
Sign Betts to a 2 year/2.5M fora 1.25 hit.
Offer Nilsson+Staois elsewheres for picks/prospects
OS Harding for a 3.25 hit.

Heatley-Horcoff-Hemsky
O'Sullivan-Gagner-Cogliano
Moreau-Brodziak/Betts-Pisani
Jacques-Brodziak/Betts-Stortini

Bouwmeester-Visnovsky
Grebeshkov-Smid
Zanon-Peckham

Harding
Deslauriers

For a total hit of 54.058 according to my excel spreadsheet. The best part is that Pisani and Moreaus contracts are up soon and most likely won't resign at the inflated prices they were at. This would give us more cap room for the Gagner extension. Our bottom 2 on D could also be questionable, and if people prefer Staois, you could move O'Sullivan and keep Nilsson around in order to keep Staois.

Scenario 4

Heatley-Horcoff-Hemsky
Cogliano-Gagner-Antropov
Moreau-Malholtra-Pisani
Jacques-Brodziak-Stortini
MacIntyre
Reddox

Visnovsky-Grebeshkov
Gilbert-Smid
Peckham-Staios
Strudwick

Antero Niittymaki
Jeff DesLauriers

Estimated Salaries

Antropov - 3-3.5 million - let's say 3.2 million
Malholtra - 1.5-3 million - let's say 2.1 million
Grebeshkov - 3.0-3.5 million - let's say 3.2 million
Niittymaki - 1.2-2.5 million - let's say 1.7 million

Brodziak - 1.0 M
Reddox - 0.7 M
Smid - 1.3 M
Strudwick - 0.5 M

Total Salary: 56.670 million * **

* Heatley has an estimated cap hit of 7.0 M with his remaining salary and remaining contract term, not including the 4 M signing bonus due July 1st.

** NHL Numbers is estimating the cap to go down to around 55 million next season. I will continue to assume that floating in around 56 is O.K.

Potential Lineups... Because I'm Bored

This is Joe Pavelski.

He scored 24-34-59 in 80 GP with 717 faceoffs won and 557 faceoffs lost, for a FO% of 56.3. More on Joe later.

For each of the listed players, the first number is the current cap hit of the player as calculated by entire contract divided by length of term by the team that signed them and/or at the time of acquisition. The second number is the remaining contract to be paid over the remaining term starting in the 2009-10 season.

WARNING:

Feel free to chip in for/against my proposals but do NOT take any of them seriously. I'm just trying to shoot the shit (pardon my French) for this upcoming off season of major change.

Oilers Players on the Block (Rumoured)

Sheldon Souray - 5.400 (EDM) / 4.833
Dustin Penner - 4.250 (EDM) / 4.250
Tom Gilbert - 4.000 (EDM) / 4.100
Patrick O'Sullivan - 2.925 (EDM) / 2.388
Steve Staios - 2.700 (EDM) / 2.500
Robert Nilsson - 2.000 (EDM) / 2.250
Ethan Moreau - 2.000 (EDM) / 1.750
Andrew Cogliano - 1.133 (EDM) / 1.133

LW Players on the Market (Rumoured)

Dany Heatley - 7.500 (OTT) / 7.000*
Marco Sturm - 3.500 (BOS) / 3.500
Alexander Frolov - 2.900 (LAK) / 4.000
Wojtek Wolski - 2.800 (COL) / 3.100

For reference:
Daniel/Henrik Sedin - 6.083 (VAN) 6.083 link
Joe Pavelski - 1.637 (SJS) / 1.725**

* He has a 4 million signing bonus due July 1.
** Joe Pavelski is not actually on the block. He is here for reference only. I would love to acquire him for the Oilers, though.

Statistics

Dany Heatley, LW
82 GP, 39-33-72, 88 PIM

Marco Sturm, LW
19 GP, 7-6-13, 8 PIM

Alexander Frolov, LW
77 GP, 32-27-59, 30 PIM

Wojtek Wolski, LW
78 GP, 14-28-42, 28 PIM

Oilers Organizational Needs

• Goaltending
  
• Size
• Scoring
• Defensive Depth @ Cheaper Rates
  

Firstly, I want to say I was surprised that Heatley would cost us less than previously thought, though the discount is only 500k per year, if the signing bonus can be avoided.

Secondly, I was surprised to find that signing one of the Sedins would be cheaper than signing Heatley. That being said, you have to sign both the Sedins if you're gonna sign them at all.

Thirdly, I put size before scoring on the team chart because Edmonton scored a lot of goals this season but couldn't keep them out of the net. This is also why goaltending is higher up the list.

Other potential FA signings on the market, such as Marian Gaborik, will also be sniffing about in the 5.5 - 7.5 M / year range. This is probably where Marian Hossa would fall as well, because even with the season he just had, I think the Red Wings set the precedent for what a player like Hossa is worth. I don't think the Oilers would still offer him 8 M+ / year as they did last summer.

Scenario 1: Heatley/Bouwmeester come to Edmonton
Scenario 2: Sedins come to Edmonton
Scenario 3: Oilers remain as status quo as possible, and add role players as opposed to star players

Scenario 1A

Heatley - Horcoff - Hemsky
Wolski - Pavelski - Gagner
Moreau - Zigomanis - Pisani
Donovan - Brodziak - Stortini
Jacques
Stone
MacIntyre
Reddox

Visnovsky - Grebeshkov
Bouwmeester - Smid
Peckham - Strudwick
Chorney

???
Jeff DesLauriers

Assumptions made:

• Bouwmeester will make 6 million, MAX
• Grebeshkov will resign for around 3.2 million, MAX
  
• Strudwick will resign for around 500 K
• Zigomanis will make 1.2 million, MAX
• Brodziak will resign for 500 K, MAX (truth is, I know he will sign for more)
  
• San Jose is willing to part with the cheap scoring forward, Pavelski (probably the biggest assumption I made in the whole thing)

Potential Trades in this Scenario 1A

• Penner + Gilbert + Omark/Schremp/etc. + 1st in 2010 for Heatley + Donovan
• Souray + Cogliano for Pavelski + Conditional 1st round pick* + 2nd round pick 2009
  
• Staios + O'Sullivan + Pouliot + 10th overall pick (2009) for Wolski + 3rd overall pick (2009)
• Nilsson for a goaltender?

* This is dependant on how many points Souray and/or Cogliano score. This would be anything from a 1st to a 3rd rounder in 2010.

Total Salary (w/o a goaltender): 49.754 million

Scenario 1B

Heatley - Horcoff - Hemsky
Kotalik - Pavelski - Gagner
Moreau - Malholtra - Pisani
Jacques - Brodziak - Stortini
Stone
MacIntyre
Reddox

Visnovsky - Grebeshkov
Bouwmeester - Smid
Peckham - Strudwick
Chorney

Josh Harding
Jeff DesLauriers

Assumptions made:

• Bouwmeester will make 6 million, MAX
  
• Grebeshkov will resign for around 3.2 million, MAX
  
• Kotalik will resign for around 3.2 million, MAX
• Malholtra will make 2.2 million, MAX
  
• Strudwick will resign for around 500 K
• Harding will make 1.5 million, MAX
  
• Brodziak will resign for 500 K, MAX (truth is, I know he will sign for more)

Potential Trades in this Scenario 1A

• Penner + Gilbert + Staios + Omark/Schremp/etc. + 1st in 2010 for Heatley + 1st round pick 2010
  
• Souray + Cogliano for Pavelski + Conditional 1st round pick* + 2nd round pick 2009
  
• O'Sullivan + Pouliot for Josh Harding
  
• Nilsson for Bouwmeester signing rights
  

Total Salary (w/Harding): 54.154 million

Scenario 2A

Frolov - Horcoff - Hemsky
Sedin - Sedin - Gagner
Reddox - Brodziak - Pisani
Jacques - Stone - Stortini
MacIntyre

Visnovsky - Grebeshkov
Souray - Smid
Peckham - Staios
Strudwick

Kari Lehtonen
Jeff DesLauriers

Assumptions made:

• Sedins sign for 6.1 million, MAX
• Lehtonen will sign for 3.5 million, MAX
• Grebeshkov will resign for around 3.2 million, MAX
• Smid will resign for around 1.2 million, MAX
  
• Strudwick will resign for around 500 K
  
• Brodziak will resign for 500 K, MAX (truth is, I know he will sign for more)

Potential Trades in this Scenario 1A

• Gilbert for Frolov
  
• Cogliano + Pouliot for Lehtonen
• Moreau, O'Sullivan, Nilsson for picks
  

Total Salary: 56.050 million**
** The big problem in this scenario is a lot of big salaries going into 2010-2011

Scenario 2B

Penner - Horcoff - Hemsky
Sedin - Sedin - Gagner
Moreau - Conroy - Pisani
Jacques - Brodziak - Stortini

Visnovsky - Grebeshkov
Gilbert - Vandermeer
Peckham - Smid
Chorney

Giguere
LaBarbera

Assumptions made:

• Sedins sign for 6.1 million, MAX
• Grebeshkov will resign for around 3.2 million, MAX
• Smid will resign for around 1.2 million, MAX
• Brodziak will resign for 500 K, MAX (truth is, I know he will sign for more)

Potential Trades in this Scenario 1A

• Souray + Nilsson + Cogliano for Giguere + 1st and 2nd round picks 2010
  
• O'Sullivan for Conroy + Vandermeer
• Pouliot for picks

Total Salary: About 56 million (no room for injuries, though!)

Scenario 3A

Penner - Horcoff - Hemsky
Cogliano - Staal - Gagner***
O'Sullivan - Brodziak - Pisani
Jacques - Zigomanis - Stortini
Stone
Reddox

Visnovsky - Grebeshkov
Gilbert - Smid
Peckham - Staios
Chorney

Bryzgalov
DesLauriers

*** I am aware that this is a line of all centers

Assumptions made:

• Grebeshkov will resign for around 3.2 million, MAX
• Smid will resign for around 1.2 million, MAX
• Brodziak will resign for 500 K, MAX (truth is, I know he will sign for more)
• Zigomanis will make 1.2 million, MAX
• Phoenix is willing to trade #1 goalie Ilya Bryzgalov (which is highly unlikely)
  

Potential Trades in this Scenario 1A

• Souray + Omark/Schremp/etc. + 2nd round pick 2010 for Staal (Jordan) + prospect
• Nilsson + Moreau for Bryzgalov + picks
• Pouliot for picks
  

Total Salary: About 53 million (no room for injuries, though!)

Other potential acquisitions of interest:

• Karlis Skrastins (the former NHL ironman shotblocker)
  
• Blair Betts
• Greg Zanon
• Nik Antropov (the Pat Quinn connection?)
• Brandom Dubinsky
• Johnny Oduya
• Jordan Leopold
• Steve Eminger
• Jassen Cullimore
• Tom Kostopoulos
• Saku Koivu
• Mikael Samuelsson
  

Trade Deadline - TODAY!!!!!

Boy do I feel bad for anyone with an Erik Cole jersey: no matter what happens today, all signs indicate he won't be back next year in an Oilers uniform.

Some prevalent Cole rumours:

• Boston with interest :Lashoff and Sobotka (pending RFA) in the mix
• Carolina with interest: Ruutu (pending RFA) being offered
  

If there is a team willing to give up exactly the kind of player(s) the Oilers organization is looking for, don't expect them to sit on a potential Cole trade. Whether or not a Cole trade happens depends on a couple of things. If the Oilers plan to make a push for the playoffs, somebody will have to take over that 2nd line RW spot. If the Oilers don't replace Cole, it is a good indication that the Oilers have packed up for the 18 holes already. If the Oilers don't trade him at all, they are set on making a playoff run. I wouldn't blame them, we're so close we can smell it.

Does Penner have trade value?

• Why Penner wouldn't be traded: He has a couple years sitting on his contract. He has a history of not showing up 100%, though his Corsi numbers or other stats of that variety indicate he is not among the worst of the Oilers in on-ice performance (don't quote me, go check with Jonathan Willis and David Staples). That being said, he's not our best either - so why is he on the 1st line? MacT is somewhat justified in demoting him.
  
• Why Penner would be traded: Penner has won it all before as a complementary player to Getzlaf and Perry. He has shown he has that ability to play on a high skill line if given the right line mates. If there is a team with a hole on LW that needs a Penner type player, he could be a commodity. His salary and point production comparables are guys like Scott Hartnell and Ryan Malone (though Hartnell is outperforming him by leaps and bounds in 2008-09). The difference between Hartnell/Malone and Penner is that the Oilers got the unmotivated version. That being said, there is gotta be someone out there who thinks that Penner is a good enough comparable for those two guys - isn't there? Please take him - please?!
  

Who's on the block?

• Robert Nilsson
• Rob Schremp
• If Wayne Gretzky can be traded anyone can be traded ...
  
• Correction, anyone who doesn't have a NTC or NMC ...
  

Reasons why the Oilers would make big move(s):

The Oilers see gaping holes at all positions except RW and move to rectify this by acquiring LW help on the 1st line (long term or temporary fix, who cares), acquiring a bonafide checking C to take the pressure off of Kyle Brodziak and also to get a veteran backup to Roloson. This would be the Mike Peca/Bobby Holik/Marty Reasoner type. It wouldn't hurt to add a veteran energy forward, since we have 3 bruisers playing on the bottom 2 lines (Jacques, Stortini, MacIntyre). This would be the Todd Harvey/Kris Draper/Darcy Tucker type of player. Also, Strudwick is a good depth D-man but questions surround Staios and Smid. Staios - does he still got what it takes to go through a few playoff rounds? Smid - he's been playing like a real defensive D-man, but is he ready for the big show? Acquiring a Derek Morris type may eat away some of that doubt and allow Gilbert to pair back up with Souray.

Reasons why the Oilers wouldn't make a big move:

The Oilers are happy with the team chemistry (or have deluded visions of a chemistry that doesn't exist). They decide to sit on potential trades to improve the team because they don't want to give up on the kids (who underperformed this year). And for some reason, the Oilers are happy to start the playoffs with Strudwick, Stortini, and MacIntyre bringing in the rear, with Reddox on the 1st line.

I shudder at the thought.

This day on Hockeybuzz ...

Eklund is suggesting the Oilers are trying to beat other teams to the punch by pulling a "Chris Pronger" and acquiring and signing Jay Bo long term. I think this is easily disproved:

Jay Bo would only sign long term after being acquired (if acquired) only if the Edmonton Oilers (and the City of Edmonton) can offer him the best possible deal on the market (pending whether he wants to play here at all). If the Oilers could be the team and Edmonton the city to offer that perfect deal - why try to beat other teams to the punch? That's just throwing away prospects and picks for someone who you can throw cash at on the UFA market.

Furhermore, Souray and Visnovsky have not been accounted for. If Jay Bo resigns his salary will be in their ball park or higher. That would effectively be a one way ticket out of town for either one of Gilbert or Grebeskhov or potentially even both, because of the NMC and NTC involved with Souray/Visnovsky. If the Toronto situation is any indication, these contract clauses are really blue balling a lot of potential trades.

Beyond that, would the Oilers really, really do this in the midst of a playoff push? The Panthers themselves are in the thick of their own playoff push. Jay Bo is central to the Panthers and is inconceivably important to their team right now, moreso than Cole (another pending UFA) is to the Oilers right now.

It's the same logic as with the Cole rumours: it's only going to happen if what the trading team gets back is more valuable and accounts for what they give up on the team. You know this. I know this. If not, why pull the trigger on the trade at all?

Eklund says he reports every thing he hears, however improbable the rumour. This cushions him from the blame of reporting something stupid. That's fine though, he wants to be an unbiased observer and listen in on discussion of his trade rumours. But if he's going to put out rumours, he has to have some input on the teams involved, as they do over at the rumour web site The Fourth Period, where editor Pagnotta chimes in on all his rumours.

Good on Pagnotta.

Armchair GM Cap On

So I'm gonna throw away what I think "Tambellini would do" and instead here's what I would do at the trade deadline.

Oilers Lineup Now

Forwards

1. Reddox/Penner Horcoff Hemsky
2. Nilsson Gagner Cole
3. Jacques Cogliano Pisani
4. Reddox/Penner Brodziak Stortini
5. MacIntyre
6. Pouliot
   
7. Moreau*
   

Defense

1. Souray Staios
2. Grebeshkov Gilbert
3. Smid Strudwick
4. Visnovsky**
   

*eye injury
**shoulder injury

Oilers Potential Moves

• Trading Cole
• Trading Nilsson
• Trading Penner (Dustin deserves better, but the truth is he's only a 2nd line player)
  

Let's assume that the Oilers only go through with trading Nilsson. That would leave the Oilers with holes on LW, RW, and on D.

Though I like Mike Knuble, it would be problematic to replace a pending UFA with another pending UFA unless you were convinced that what you gave up would be less valuable than what you got back. If Knuble could be landed for a low draft pick (3rd - 7th), I'd say git er done.

I would also trade for Marty Reasoner and Derek Morris in some capacity. I assume the Oilers have tried to acquire Guerin for a playoff run but going through with that would be akin to trying to cash in Nedved a second time: he's too old - it aint gonna work. Reasoner is worth a low draft pick, I'd say below 4th rounder. Morris would be worth considerably more. Another possibility is Brendan Witt, a veteran D-man.

We'd also have to land a 1st line LW to replace Penner after he is demoted to the 2nd line. Alexander Frolov has been tossed around as a possibility but what possible weakness on the LA Kings team could we actually fill through trade (assuming they would be willing to part with Frolov?). The LA Kings have two main weaknesses: goaltending and defensive forwards. Jarret Stoll is the only guy who truly fills that role on LA and we don't have anyone to offer except Kyle Brodziak, who would do benefit the Oilers more than the Kings. Also, we don't have any goalies to offer besides more rookies and they don't need any of those. The Kings have enough young talent to assume they would take a flyer on Nilsson and Schremp, the common names tossed around in potential trades. What I'm really trying to say is a Frolov trade is probably unlikely, unless LA is going to stock up on more young talent.

Keith Tkachuk is available but you can forget about him - past trade deadlines have already indicated what the Blues think he is worth.

Unfortunately, Ryan Smyth has a NTC or else I'd be on the phone trading him for Penner.

Some rental players out there are Ruslan Fedotenko and Miroslav Satan. Assuming the Penguins are serious about trying to make the playoffs, these characters are not available. Jordan Staal, if available, would be an interesting pick up but he would not be for the present - he would be for the future. In terms of guys who are going to help us excel in a potential playoff run, picking up Staal would make picking up a guy like Reasoner unnecessary. Unfortunately, the Oilers are not willing to part with certain prospects and a Staal trade is unlikely. Schremp played large parts of his AHL career in Wilkes-Barre and a trade to Pittsburgh in any Staal deal would likely see him involved.

The most likely scenario is that the Oilers acquire a top line player for Hemsky and Horcoff who is a familiar suspect. This narrows the list down to:

• Ray Whitney
  

In this case I would probably agree with this trade. Unless Atlanta changes their mind and decides to trade Ilya Kovalchuk, there's nobody else available I would consider besides Whitney except Alexander Frolov (who we've already ruled out) and Gary Roberts. Yes, Gary Roberts - he's old but unlike Guerin, he's still got pluck.

I would also pick up some goaltending depth. Ottawa would be glad if we took Gerber off their hands. Being an unwanted player in Ottawa he probably wouldn't cost more than a low draft pick. Plus, he's a pending UFA so he won't be a problem next year.

Here's a recap of what the trade deadline would look like if I were Oilers' GM, with the assumption that the Morris trade would be too pricey.

Trades:

To EDM: Mike Knuble (rental) for
To PHI: low draft pick and filler

To EDM: Brendan Witt (rental) for
To NYI: low draft pick and filler

To EDM: Jordan Staal for
To PIT: 2nd round pick, Rob Schremp, Taylor Chorney, Steve Staios (if this trade is not available, get Reasoner)

To EDM: Ray Whitney (worth re-signing) for
To CAR: Robert Nilsson and filler

To EDM: Martin Gerber (rental) and a low draft pick for
To OTT: Marc Antoine Pouliot

Oilers Lineup After Trades

Forwards

1. Whitney Horcoff Hemsky
2. Penner Cogliano Cole
3. Jacques Staal/Reasoner Pisani
4. Reddox Brodziak Knuble
5. Stortini (he's ahead of Big Mac considering he brings more than fighting)
6. Gagner (Gagner would get chewed up and spit out in the playoffs)
   

To Springfield:

• MacIntyre
• Gerber (emergency callup)
  

Defense

1. Souray Gilbert
2. Grebeshkov Smid
3. Strudwick Witt
   

From Sprinfield:

• Peckham

Goal

1. Roloson
2. DesLauriers

Injuries to Moreau and Visnovsky

Bonuses to this new lineup

• Increased speed on the 1st line
• Increased size on the 2nd line
• Two effective checking lines (with or without Knuble, since we still have Big Mac and Stortini)
• Goaltending depth in case of injury to Roloson or DesLauriers
• Veteran presence in the absence of Moreau and Visnovsky (Whitney, Knuble, Witt)

Potential Sticking Points

Why Witt and not Staios?
Answer: I think Smid is already better than "Steady Steve," and he's ready to take the next step. Trading for Witt is not to replace Staios, it's to promote Smid.

Why Knuble and not Stortini or MacIntyre?
Answer: Knuble may be a rental but he's got that veteran leadership that the other two don't bring to the table.

Whitney is not exactly an elite LW player. Why him?
Answer: I agree with you. It's just that nobody else available is worth the price. If Smyth, Kovalchuk, or Frolov were as available as every wanted them to be, we wouldn't be having this dicussion.

Giving up Pouliot for Gerber - are you crazy?
Answer: No. Poo is useless. At least with Gerber, we have insurance for injury. If you recall in 2006, we were lucky to have Markkanen to take over for Roloson when he got injured. If Roloson ever got injured in the playoffs this year, our goaltending tandem would be DesLauriers and Dubnyk. This is not the AHL playoffs, and last time I checked, the Springfield Falcons are not in the running.

Whitney is 37. What makes him better than Guerin?
Answer: Whitney is a fast skater and a LW. Guerin is slow and he's a RW. This is a situation where what you give up is not worth what you get back - as in, what would we be giving up for Guerin? He's the only guy NYI has to offer so you'd expect them to want a lot in return to save their shinking ship of a franchise. GM Rutherford is probably going to keep stocking up on young talented players and start shipping off guys like Whitney, who can still play. Whitney is old but he's still got pluck (like Roberts) and brings the "desire" element missing in Penner.

Reasonable Trade Deadline Acquisitions (Updated)

2008-09 Wish List

• Offensive D-Man (To replace Visnovsky AND Grebeshkov)
  
• Defensive D-Man (To fill the void we've had all season)
  
• Checking-line Faceoff Specialist (To fill the void we've had all season)
• Chippy Winger (To fill the void we've had all season)
• Goaltending depth (To backup Roloson for the stretch-run AND playoffs)

Reasonable Trade Deadline Acquisitions (Updated)

1. Derek Morris (PHX) (pending UFA) * (Alberta Connection)
2. Philip Kuba (OTT) (pending UFA) *
3. Jordan Leopold (COL) (pending UFA) *
4. Jason Smith (OTT) * (Former Oiler) (Alberta Connection)
5. Marty Reasoner (ATL) (pending UFA) (Former Oiler)
6. Chris Gratton (TMP) (pending UFA)
7. Mathieu Schneider (ATL) (pending UFA) *
8. Gary Roberts (TMP) (pending UFA)
9. Steve Begin (MTL) (pending UFA)
10. Bobby Holik (NJD) (pending UFA)
11. Marek Malik (TMP) (pending UFA) *

* Guys who have played, or have the ability to play 20+ minutes in a game. This is crucial considering the injuries to Visnovsky and Grebeshkov.

Oilers Tradeable Assets

Among the tradeable assets, the assets are ranked from most tradeable to least tradeable. The list DOES NOT take into account the contribution the player makes to the team, only their relative value to another team. The tradeable assets list also doesn't take into account whether or not the player has huge plans in the organization's future, only that at this moment in time, they are most tradeable. This list does not include core players like Hemsky, Horcoff, Souray, Visnovsky, etc.

Denis Grebeshkov (most valuable asset, contract wise and value wise!)
Sam Gagner *
Andrew Cogliano *
Robert Nilsson *
Ladislav Smid
Rob Schremp
Steve Staios
Dustin Penner
Ethan Moreau **
Marc Pouliot
Ryan O'Marra ***
Zach Stortini

* Now most people will ask me, how can you trade the kids?! They are the future! This is in fact, my own opinion as well - that the future of the Oilers rests on the shoulders of one of these 3. But in reality, the Oilers will not be able to keep all 3. All this list shows is the trade value of Sam Gagner compared to Robert Nilsson.
** " You can't trade Ethan Moreau! He's our Captain! " you say?! I say nay! The fact that the Oilers have traded Wayne Gretzky, Jason Smith, and Doug Weight should say something about the job security for one Ethan Moreau.
*** Ryan O'Marra sucks. Yes, I know it. You know it. But it's all about draft pedigree for some players. The fact that Danny Syvret could fetch Ryan Potulny, and the fact that Gilbert Brule could fetch Raffi Torres - should say something about how tradeable a Ryan O'Marra type player is.

Honorable Mentions

• Trent Hunter (NYI) (he just signed a contract extension, though) (Alberta Connection)
• Yanic Perreault (UFA)
• Chris Neil (OTT) (pending UFA)
• Scott Nichol (NSH) (pending UFA) (Alberta Connection)
• Mark Smith (UFA) (Alberta Connection)
  
• Nikolai Khabibulin (CHI) (pending UFA) (G) (highly unlikely, though possible)
  
• Manny Legace (STL) (doghouse and waiver wire) (pending UFA) (G)
  
• Jeff Woywitka (STL) (pending RFA) (Former Oiler) (Alberta Connection)
• Daniel Tjarngvist (COL) (pending UFA) (Former Oiler)
• Peter Budaj (COL) (pending RFA) (G)
• Andrew Raycroft (COL) (pending UFA) (G)
• Erik Christensen (ATL) (pending RFA) (Alberta Connection)
• Martin Gerber (OTT) (G)

Ideal Trade Deadline Oilers Transactions

1. Acquire a big-minute eating shutdown D-man: Derik Morris (and NO, Strudwick is NOT an option)
2. Acquire an offensive D-man to take Visnovsky's place: Kuba or Leopold will do. Schneider has experience but he is also old as hell.
3. Acquire a faceoff specialist: Marty Reasoner, Chris Gratton, or Yanic Perreault will do fine.
4. Acquire a chippy winger: Steve Begin, Chris Neil, or Scott Nichol (who also plays C) will do fine. (we haven't had one since Raffi Torres - NO, Reddox does NOT count)
5. Acquire a veteran backup for Roloson: Budaj/Legace

Oilers Playoff Lineup (After Acquisitions)

Penner - Horcoff - Hemsky
Nilsson - Gagner - Cole *
Cogliano - Brodziak - Neil/Begin
Moreau - Reasoner/Gratton - Pisani
MacIntyre
Jacques

Souray - Gilbert
Smid - Kuba/Morris/Leopold/Schneider
Staios - Peckham **
Strudwick
Roy
Grebeshkov (4-6 weeks on the IR)
Visnovsky (out for season)

Roloson
Legace/Budaj/Raycroft/Gerber/Khabibulin (here's hoping the Oilers don't go after Cujo the way they went after Nedved a few years back)
DesLauriers
Sabourin

* If the Oilers make the playoffs - that is. If the Oilers are in danger of missing the playoffs, expect Cole to be dealt away.
** Anybody who watched the Oilers play LA Kings will agree about how much better Peckham played than Strudwick did. Anybody who watched the Oilers play all season will agree that Strudwick makes a better forward than D-man.

I belive Begin could be had for Pouliot. Thickoil (Travis) believes Neil could be had for Stortini and a low pick. Guys like Rob Schremp and Ryan O'Marra could be valuable to a team with low farm team depth, so they would make good bait for pending UFA players (plus, we could use more room for signing guys like Petry, Nash, and Eberle). Mathieu Roy may be on the block but he may not fetch many takers - which would lead me to the belief that he may receive one more chance to play in Edmonton.

Both Jacques and Pisani are almost healthy, so that's good news for Oil Country.

2008-09 UFA Wish List

This UFA wish list is in order of most desired to least desired:

• Jay Bouwmeester (D)
• Ilya Kovalchuk (LW)
• Niklas Skrastins (D) (the former NHL ironman)
• Marian Hossa (LW/RW)
• John Madden (C)
• Chris Neil (RW)
• Fredrik Norrena (G)
• Jaromir Jagr (LW/RW)
• Johnny Oduya (D)

Trade Deadline Approaches

Oilers Trade Deadline Acquisition History

1. Depth players instead of superstars (ex. Dick Tarnstrom, Dwayne Roloson, Sergei Samsonov, Petr Nedved, Anson Carter)
2. Pending UFAs / RFAs or signing free agent role players (ex. Rem Murray, German Titov)

Recent Oiler Trade Trends

1. Acquiring local products (ex. Jason Strudwick, Joffrey Lupul, Gilbert Brule, Robert Nilsson)
2. Trying to develop within the system to fill organizational needs over paying a price to acquire superstars (ex. Jeff DesLauriers, Ladislav Smid, Ryan Potulny)
3. Trades involving big names have all come in the off-season (ex. Chris Pronger, Erik Cole, Lubomir Visnovsky)

Conclusions

1. Unless hell freezes over (or Tambellini is GM Christ), the Oilers will not acquire a big name before the trade deadline
2. The Oilers will acquire a depth player for lines 2-4 or defensive depth 4-7
3. The Oilers will not acquire another goaltender (all the available goaltenders are not cap friendly)
4. Possibility of a local product being acquired is high

Reasonable Trade Deadline Acquisitions

1. Trent Hunter
2. Erik Christensen
3. Mike Commodore (unless the BlueJackets are going to make a serious, serious run at the playoffs this year)
4. Doug Weight (I'm sure there is some smoke to this gun)
5. Jonathan Filewich
6. Bryan Little (I know we have a lot of small forwards, but we seem to be collecting them lately in the form of Brule, Potulny, Gagner, etc. but hey, they're currently higher on the depth chart than the Brodziak's and Strudwick's of the team)
7. Jason Smith
8. Johan Franzen (I don't know about you, but he would be a great fit on this team)
9. Steve Begin
10. Chris Neil
11. Nik Antropov (yes, it is possible even with Brian Burke)

Random thoughts and questions on tradeable assets:

1. Do we still have the rights to Mikhnov and Bumagin? I'm sure these skilled players would have some market value to teams like the Maple Laughs, the Rangers or the Red Wings
2. What is a reasonable expectation for what Rob Schremp (Hockey Jesus himself) will fetch on the open market?
3. Who is the most expendable Oiler core player (for the purposes of trading for a skilled LW)? I've heard names like Staios, Gilbert, and Penner tossed around
4. If we only get to pick one to keep - Grebeshkov (RFA) or Cole (UFA) - who would it be?
5. Do we bring in a goalie to replace Roli next year - or resign him to backup DesLauriers who might be given every chance to prove he deserves the #1 job?